Monday, July 6, 2020

Why there is no V

The market has been getting excited by the prospect of a V-shaped recovery. It points to data such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 43.1 in May to 52.6 in June, indicating expansion. The employment index improved from 32.1 to 42.1, and the new orders index increased from 31.8 to 56.4..

While those are positive developments, this is not indicative of a V-shaped rebound. PMIs are designed to measure month-to-month changes. The economy is still in a big hole it's trying to dig out of, and there are signs the recovery is stalling.

The full post can be found here.

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