Sunday, September 19, 2021

A correction in time?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Bullish*
  • Trading model: Neutral*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

The stealth correction?
For several weeks, I have been calling for a choppy sideways market, but the S&P 500 continues its upward grind. To be sure, the index pulled back about 2% last week and briefly tested its 50 dma, but its upward trajectory has been relentless. 

A discussion with another chartist raised the possibility that the market has been undergoing a stealth correction. As good technicians know, corrections can occur in price or in time. Beneath the surface, market internals have been correcting in both price and time. My equity risk appetite models have been trading sideways for much of this year.

Breadth indicators tell a similar story. While the S&P 500 Advance-Decline line has made fresh highs during the current advance, other versions of the A-D Line have been flat to weak. The weakest have been the NASDAQ and the S&P 600 small-cap A-D Lines. 

The tactical outlook is more constructive. Even as the S&P 500 tested the 50 dma and made a marginal low last Friday, all of the A-D Lines except for the S&P 500 did not make a fresh low.

The full post can be found here.

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