tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post2125896432153910421..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Another look at the inflation-deflation debateCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-1357222920353411302010-06-02T21:06:07.394-07:002010-06-02T21:06:07.394-07:00WimpyInvestor -
The reasoning behind a 100% stock...WimpyInvestor -<br /><br />The reasoning behind a 100% stock allocation when the Inflation Deflation Timer model shows a neutral reading is that the environment is relatively "benign" as the readings do not show runaway inflation nor deflation. However, given the macro risks I would be more defensive in an actual portfolio.<br /><br />The inflation-neutral-deflation readings of the model could also be mapped to a risk (inflation) tp safety (deflation) scale. While I haven't done any work on it, it could conceivable be turned into a sector or industry allocation model.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-9721360094373059132010-06-02T08:27:17.806-07:002010-06-02T08:27:17.806-07:00Interesting that the Inflation-Deflation Model is ...Interesting that the Inflation-Deflation Model is back to Neutral (Stocks over Commodities). Perhaps slower growth in China & Europe is causing the move away from "Inflation." Lower Global GDP growth, stable US $, lower gas prices, and lower US mortgage rates all support domestically focused US equities. Just wondering if the Inflation-Timer can be further enhanced as a Sector Rotation Model (e.g., XLE and XLB could under-perform XLF, XLV when reading is "Neutral").WimpyInvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18148362644880449393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-17655867380197712762010-05-31T08:54:54.144-07:002010-05-31T08:54:54.144-07:00Understanding this duality is the most important p...Understanding this duality is the most important problem our governments face. Even the prominent macro academics fail to frame it in the way you have. <br /><br />Please take a look here and track back the links. It's even worthwhile to look through the comments.<br /><br />http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/05/delong-smackdown-watch-mark-thoma-on-why-the-macroeconomic-playbook-wasnt-consulted.html#commentswalthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12582199269389313153noreply@blogger.com