tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post3638907357494796545..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: China turns Japanese?Cam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-23740718587694544572014-05-15T12:30:53.883-07:002014-05-15T12:30:53.883-07:00Per capita GDP is much lower now (relative) in Chi...Per capita GDP is much lower now (relative) in China than it was in 1990 in Japan.<br />The quality of the Chinese worker is good. May be not as good (over the whole line) as the 1990 Japanese, but still a lot of low hanging fruit. <br />They look to have more potential than the 1990 Japanese (but definitely no 7.5% pa).<br /><br />On the other hand they have to make the switch the Japanese had already made in 1990. 1990 Japanese economy was already worldclass. <br />It will imho more depend if they can make that switch to marketing/brands and such. Most cies will definitely have problems (but you always see consolidation as well).<br /> <br />In China you however see entrepreneurs that really understand what will be needed for that (unlike a few others in similar per capita GDP water). Plus these still have relatively low labourcosts (and a homemarket that grows more than the Western ones).<br />But as you say resources should be channeled to those and not to those with the most influence.<br />Allthough the gap is not that big as in other countries. Usually still very talented people. In some similar countries where the elite is older it is much worse.<br />Elite is still relative young/fresh. Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-30177635651352237132014-05-15T12:06:23.943-07:002014-05-15T12:06:23.943-07:00What you have seen post-1997 in other countries in...What you have seen post-1997 in other countries in the region.<br />The elite that had become filthy rich eh has prospered simply reversed the transactions that were not yet fuly completed.<br />Dumping the risk with the developpers and subsequently with the major banks (and subsequently with the government). It was not by far the best solution (unless you were an elitist of course) but that what has happened.<br /><br />Will likely be a strong push towards that. See if and how far the central government can keep that under control. They could however not properly control RE prices and lending in this crisis until now so it will be a big if. Riknoreply@blogger.com