tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post4096453330175775068..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Surviving and prospering as a quantCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-64599045296560822532007-12-03T09:32:00.000-08:002007-12-03T09:32:00.000-08:00I agree 100%.I am sympathetic to this long cycle v...I agree 100%.<BR/><BR/>I am sympathetic to this long cycle viewpoint. However, to proclaim this too loudly for too long runs the risk of being lumped in with all the "run for the hills and hoard freeze dried food" gold bugs and survivalists that you run the risk of losing all credibility.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-60939303201556838432007-12-03T08:12:00.000-08:002007-12-03T08:12:00.000-08:00Understood, and I agree. After all, the key to th...Understood, and I agree. After all, the key to the debt supercycle -- the relationship of GDP growth and credit growth -- was first noted by Maria Fiorini Ramirez in the mid-1980's. It'a a long, slow story.<BR/><BR/>But perhaps it is today. The key signal is the simultaneous action of internal and external debt cycles -- a "Minsky" moment for US Household debt and (perhaps) end of USD as the reserve currency.<BR/><BR/>That it was a long wait should not blind us to the possibility that it has arrived.Fabius Maximushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17171207247722824358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-80562687714781772182007-12-03T07:42:00.000-08:002007-12-03T07:42:00.000-08:00Fabius -The "post-WW II debt supercycle story" has...Fabius -<BR/><BR/>The "post-WW II debt supercycle story" has been around for a long time and it has taken a long time to unfold. It's hard to gauge the timing of the effects postulated.<BR/><BR/>This story has been amplified by the gold bugs and the oil peak end-of-the-world advocates (and you seen to know the latter group well). <BR/><BR/>My job is to try to make money in the markets and it's difficult to know if and when these effects become dominant.<BR/><BR/>HSOFMCam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-61560902494720147142007-12-03T07:23:00.000-08:002007-12-03T07:23:00.000-08:00Thanks for the link! Any thoughts on my series ab...Thanks for the link! Any thoughts on my series about the end of "the post-WWII debt supercycle" (as Bank Credit Analyst called it).Fabius Maximushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17171207247722824358noreply@blogger.com