tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post5179450518945424741..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Some bullish data pointsCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-17051329050235768962011-08-17T23:58:07.375-07:002011-08-17T23:58:07.375-07:00"..can you argue against a magazine cover ind..."..can you argue against a magazine cover indicator?"<br /><br />--Yes we can; but only in that such classic indicators of laziness and complacency of assumption--which is what these magazine covers are--will often be found within months of reversal points, rather than days or weeks... and thus can't be used for timing purposes in the same way.<br /><br />I would rather argue against these I.I. Survey advisory numbers with another Survey, like the current Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Index, which you referenced earlier, and which shows an approximately 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 distribution of Bulls, Bears, and Neutral; or with very quick-moving Put/Call ratio data, which has been showing a growing amount of pessimistic put buying the past couple days; or with some objective measure of extreme weakness, like the percentage of SPX or NASDAQ stocks above their 50day MA... which according to one financial writer I follow, is right now still at the third lowest reading since 2002, even with last week's rebound.<br /><br />Also, I’ve found value in some of the sentiment research done by the Schaeffer Research Institute, which shows that high advisory bullishness is actually NOT bearish... so long as it is rising or steady state. <br /><br />It's ONLY when it starts to unwind (as it always does, eventually) that it becomes immediately and strongly dangerous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-37043639998901566472011-08-17T16:33:57.133-07:002011-08-17T16:33:57.133-07:00Yes I am aware of the survey figures - but can you...Yes I am aware of the survey figures - but can you argue against a magazine cover indicator?Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-42343718505127193842011-08-17T08:48:17.026-07:002011-08-17T08:48:17.026-07:00"..Sentiment is getting so bearish..."
..."..Sentiment is getting so bearish..."<br /><br />I'm not sure I agree, Cam Hui! I consider the continuing high readings in the Investor’s Intelligence weekly survey to be horrifyingly bullish, the kind that makes me want to short everything twice!<br /><br />Here are recent percentages..<br /><br />Aug 17 Bulls 46.2 Bears 23.7<br /><br />08/10 47.3 23.7<br />08/03 46.3 24.7<br />07/27 49.5 21.5<br />07/20 46.2 21.5<br />07/13 44.1 22.6 <br /><br />Please tell me, if not the past six weeks, what will it TAKE to turn these advisors pessimistic?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com