tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post5385139475693099396..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Unemployment and stock pricesCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-78905630831015608902009-11-12T10:13:11.011-08:002009-11-12T10:13:11.011-08:00Cam,
Thank you for referencing my article on your...Cam,<br /><br />Thank you for referencing my article on your blog and seeking alpha. I enjoyed reading your position regarding my article and I look forward to reading your future posts. Throughout your article you make solid arguments and I completely agree with the conclusion that for investment advisors, “success comes from serving their clients’ long-term interests.” However I believe you may have misinterpreted the premise of my article. <br /><br />By no means did I want to allude that unemployment has peaked, in fact I believe that it can continue to rise well into the early parts of 2010. I was simply attempting to show how the stock market has behaved historically when unemployment has peaked. Financial markets have been following economic cycles for over 150 years and are linked in a logical, rational and sequential relationship to business activity. Given the current economic environment and unemployment levels I thought that people might find this comparison interesting as well as educational. <br /><br />To view my previous posts or to obtain more information about my viewpoints of the financial markets please visit http://www.jimkopas.com<br /><br />Regards,<br /><br />Jim Kopas<br />Pring Turner Capital Group<br />http://www.pringturner.comAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00327034155004330396noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-44377416087100789762009-11-12T03:59:01.308-08:002009-11-12T03:59:01.308-08:00Cam,
Good post. Great to see different point of v...Cam,<br /><br />Good post. Great to see different point of views whether right or wrong.<br /><br />The market rally is largely driven by liquidity and seemingly ever declining dollar.<br /><br />Nothing goes in one direction forever. A snapback in US dollar during Sep08 - Mar09 saw a detrimental implication for hard assets like stocks and commodity.<br /><br />My question is what do you see as an imminent risk for a snap back in US dollar hence correction in stocks or commodity.<br /><br /> - Swine Flu breakout in China during winter<br /> - second wave of Option-ARM and Alt-A mortgage reset in 2010.<br /> - Chinese overcapacity in industrial production<br /> - increase in US interest rate (is this even possible under helicopter Ben? Perhaps remotely possible)<br /><br />ThanksAndy Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02449094332376863728noreply@blogger.com