tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post7018007385945793551..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Trend Model August report card: An invaluable lesson on model designCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-87972829626538328812015-09-05T06:57:09.193-07:002015-09-05T06:57:09.193-07:00Most important thing you pointed out was the possi...Most important thing you pointed out was the possibility of a 2011 like scenario. My observation was with the broader market weakness a correction was coming, which you pointed out often. Key point now is will this be a shallow correction (1987,1998,2010,2011)or something more serious (2000, 2008). I come down on a shallow correction. Market is not extremely overvalued (unlike 2000), events are external to US economy (like 1998, 2011), financial system is strong (unlike 2008). In fact, when the smoke clears, we may find that with a strong dollar (weakening currencies elsewhere) and growing GDP the US equity market is even stronger than before. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12731628794130323621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-39084746531845874192015-09-05T00:19:28.944-07:002015-09-05T00:19:28.944-07:00Thanks for your candid sharing.
Two thoughts came ...Thanks for your candid sharing.<br />Two thoughts came to my mind:<br /><br />1. So you have a "main model" and a "trading model".<br />Would splitting your money into two portions (eg 50% each) and trading the two models separately improve matters?<br /><br />2. Could your performance be improved by plotting an equity curve of your model?<br />The theory being that when your equity curve falls below a moving average, it's an indication that the model is no longer compatible with the trading environment.<br /><br />http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/equity-curve.asp<br /><br />http://www.adaptrade.com/BreakoutFutures/Newsletters/Newsletter0205.htm<br /><br />Cheers ... PeterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-62351580398795848892015-09-04T09:48:59.097-07:002015-09-04T09:48:59.097-07:00Cam, you are one of the few blogs i follow and I b...Cam, you are one of the few blogs i follow and I believe it is excellent. I was actually stunned by your bullish stance despite your many bearish posts. Remember the chart with the MACD which gave 100% accurate signals? I think your short term model got caught in a regime shift. It worked well for the past years only to break down recently. A good reminder that short term counter trend models such as RSI can hit limitations is Crude Oil. When it fell from 80 to 40 the RSI was oversold for many weeks. Keep up the good work and keep posting. All the best and happy trading...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-91482441343900557152015-09-04T03:39:27.447-07:002015-09-04T03:39:27.447-07:00I guess adding stop-loss actions to your model cou...I guess adding stop-loss actions to your model could improve its performance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-78479565916438122052015-09-03T18:51:48.765-07:002015-09-03T18:51:48.765-07:00I want to let you know how much appreciate your e...I want to let you know how much appreciate your efforts in trying to bring some order to what truly is chaos. It is extremely difficult to do what you are doing and the recent performance of your model simply serves to point that out. I find you to be a voice of reason amongst the constant and deafening babble of unreason and thank you for making your thoughts available in your blog.<br />RAS RASnoreply@blogger.com