tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post8156952460512852274..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Prepare for volatilityCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-38023182634500753232012-05-16T12:35:38.867-07:002012-05-16T12:35:38.867-07:00As always, a very insightful post. You've cove...As always, a very insightful post. You've covered a very wide landscape. Lot of food for thought. I agree that the rest of the year would be a roller coaster ride, given all the cross- currents. Some quick thoughts on the issues raised in your blog.<br /><br />- Agree with you assessment of what you call the axis of growth - that's a nice term !<br /><br />- However, regarding Greece, I am now starting to believe the camp which says that Greece's exit is inevitable.<br />Greece has dug itself into a hole from which it is nearly impossible to come out without severe battering. With debt at 160% of GDP, an economy in severe recession and a quarter of population unemployed, I can't imagine any feasible policy response withing the constraints of EMU that can make a lasting difference. Plus, not only has Greece defaulted more than once on its debt in the past 50 years, but it seems it misrepresented its numbers while enterin the EMU !<br /><br />- Beautiful point about the bond markets. Had observed the same phenomenon. That would imply that the bond markets are not worried about any major deterioration in economic conditions in Europe, nor are they worried about any real economic impact from whatever happens with Greece.<br /><br />- Very interesting point about the fiscal cliff in America. Hadn't given it too much thought till now.<br /><br />- As for the US equity markets, I believe, my sense that they are due for a major correction - all the technical seem to indicate that pretty strongly<br /><br />- The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index - that was a new one for me - very interesting.Amar Harolikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01385164336335795215noreply@blogger.com