tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post9021651373433791999..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Sheep can make money too!Cam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-17761618792479784232008-04-04T11:03:00.000-07:002008-04-04T11:03:00.000-07:00I believe he's referring to the book "Trend Follow...I believe he's referring to the book "Trend Following," which came out a few years ago, and was predominantly focused on long-term trend following (LTTF) in the commodities and futures markets. It's worth buying in my opinion.<BR/><BR/>The important thing to remember is that MARKETS DON'T HAVE TRENDS. The idea of a "TREND" is a metric or measurement that WE, the OBSERVER, bring TO the market. <BR/><BR/>Take a look at that Kospi Vs. SP500 chart. <BR/>* If your timeframe for defining trend is multi-decadal, the chart isn't long enough, and the trend (from the multi-decadal point of view) is arguably DOWN.<BR/>* If your timeframe is multi-week or even if you're using a multi-month definition of trend, the trend is DOWN.<BR/>* Only if your timeframe is year+ but less than multi-decadal is the trend UP.<BR/><BR/>Obviously, the timeframe of the trader determines if, for HIM, that market is trending or not. It's a commonplace occurrence for some of the guys I watch to short something I'm long, and for us BOTH to be right; him for the day or week, perhaps, and me for the x-month holding period.<BR/><BR/>The key to following trends is matching the holding period, trend measurement period, and tolerance for volatility, to the trader doing the trend-following. Most who do this in the commodity space use mechanical or mostly mechanical methods, backtested across a range of diverse holdings traded simultaneously.nodoodahshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05324705536306995431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-66991544509158678232008-04-03T21:49:00.000-07:002008-04-03T21:49:00.000-07:00When you mention techniques spelled out in Michael...When you mention techniques spelled out in Michael Covel's book, are you referring to the book "Turtle Trader"?<BR/><BR/>The book didn't go into enough details, but after running through it you would need some major capital and constant oversight so as to not get wiped out.<BR/><BR/>Nice analysis by the way. I got out of the Korean index ETF a few months ago because of their heavy reliance on a few industries. Do you still think this is a good play?DThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14268034607303011080noreply@blogger.com