tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post915677254188278165..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: The One Big Bet made by most buy-and-hold portfoliosCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-70727924169132674352015-09-02T09:54:16.930-07:002015-09-02T09:54:16.930-07:00 I wish more authors of this type of conent would ... I wish more authors of this type of conent would take the you did to research and write so well. I am very impressed with your vision and insight.<br />http://www.bigbonusbets.com.au/james brownnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02028427553636467260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-57526650481917848232014-09-21T21:14:44.459-07:002014-09-21T21:14:44.459-07:00Is the inflation adjustment using government figur...Is the inflation adjustment using government figures, gold, or something else? Would have tremendous impact on returns.<br /><br />I think its notable that in history there are wealthy families from industry, land and banking, but none (that I can think of) from equity investment. It is only in modern fiat money times that we have super wealthy equity investors - we'll have to wait and see if this is a long-term opportunity or a half century blip in history.<br /><br />Stumbled upon your blog from Pettis' writings, enjoying your work.Lukenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-22916689057888981252014-09-04T22:13:03.168-07:002014-09-04T22:13:03.168-07:00I think the general progress of humanity (yes, con...I think the general progress of humanity (yes, contrary to many "news" reports), humans are much better off today than they were in the past- even just in the past few decades(- look up the Gates Foundation's and other assessments of well-being on the planet).<br /><br />One of the main factors in well-being is law and order; part of which is avoiding violence, e.g. avoiding wars.<br /><br />Wars tend to kill the poor- see ISIS, etc. If you look at the impact of war on the developed economies over history, including the past few decades, it has been declining. <br /><br />If we had something like WWI or WWII in the developed world, you would have hundreds of millions of people killed.<br /><br />Do you see that now? No, thus the continued reasonably good performance of financial markets and developed economies.<br /><br />We should all feel good about that.<br /><br />Thanks for your work on the blog.wkevinwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-44572053145342995372014-09-04T12:16:56.018-07:002014-09-04T12:16:56.018-07:00Great blog post. The big reminder for me is to al...Great blog post. The big reminder for me is to always watch out for survivor bias in all investment backtesting / historical analysis. Too many people use "after the fact" data, without factoring in the data available at the point of actual decision making. <br /><br />Angel investors all want to find the next Facebook or Microsoft. So, if we are tempted to use "CEO who dropped out of Harvard" as one of the screening criteria. But, if I had invested in equal amounts on all Harvard undergrad drop-outs when Bill and Mark left school, I would probably be broke now.WimpyInvestorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18148362644880449393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-33824617150157569572014-09-04T09:48:14.076-07:002014-09-04T09:48:14.076-07:00Two things to keep in mind if you just invest in U...Two things to keep in mind if you just invest in US companies:<br /><br />1) Even if US companies get much of their sales from non-US sources, it doesn`t mean that they trade like international companies. KO is much more correlated to the S&P 500 than EAFE, for example.<br />2) You are also ignoring the other long-term risks that I wrote about, from war and confiscation and governance risk (being able to enforce your legal claims).<br /><br />CamCam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-13741172983136990372014-09-04T02:55:39.234-07:002014-09-04T02:55:39.234-07:00Isn't something like 30-40% of US corporate ea...Isn't something like 30-40% of US corporate earnings now generated from offshore sources? So US equity markets are becoming more and more global rather than just reflecting the stateside economy. This perhaps justifies a significant portion of the greater relative size of the US market currently, no?Caustic Popnoreply@blogger.com