tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Humble Student of the MarketsCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger2024125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-12134907887069962022016-03-31T05:56:16.863-07:002016-03-31T05:56:16.863-07:00An essential issue you underestimate imho is that ...An essential issue you underestimate imho is that the Brexit discussion has largely become emotional iso rational. And in an emotional discussion unsympathetic parties (like the EU is largely seen in the UK) always have a considerable disadvantage. Anyway polls are showing results 10-15 sigma apart so are largely useless as we donot know which ones are more or less correct. Probably best to go for 50/50 now. My instict as yours says that likely people will vote for the devil they know, however the Scottish referendum where the case for remain could rationally be explained (from an economic perspective) almost had 50% Outs, or just needed a few percents more for out to break up the country.<br /><br />The financial markets have basically only focussed on the small UK leaving the big EU. That made the market reactions we have seen totally logical. However as we have seen with the Euro a possible break up could also be seen as the beginning of the end of the EU. With as such much larger consequences for especially EZ countries than in case of a Brexit for the UK. Imho marketsentiment will be extremely important. In other words another Euro (sub-)crisis at that time might give 180 degree different outcomes. Riknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-24344332292580479282016-03-18T08:19:08.626-07:002016-03-18T08:19:08.626-07:00So unique blog! Many thanks form all stdents from ...So unique blog! Many thanks form all stdents from UK! :)Study in UKhttp://www.study4u.eunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-82414564239272414882016-02-21T13:22:22.757-08:002016-02-21T13:22:22.757-08:00Good site.Good site.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-60070909651764591752016-02-16T15:20:17.412-08:002016-02-16T15:20:17.412-08:00I just would like to say. you post on humble stude...I just would like to say. you post on humble student of the markets is timely. In fact with North Korea's latest missile test, China will more than likely see additional pain from it capital markets as Beijing tries to pump up North Korea's poor financial situation. This was a great article.John Bradyhttp://www.taximeters-n-toplights.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-87786682860696353332016-02-04T12:56:08.917-08:002016-02-04T12:56:08.917-08:00Hui says "Beijing has many tools at its dispo...Hui says "Beijing has many tools at its disposal to mitigate the immediate downside risks facing China and the global economy."<br /><br />What are those tools? The same ones Japan and the USA have been using for decades --- PRINT MONEY IN THE $TRILLIONS TILL OBLIVION?<br /><br />I say, keep your money out of the markets, they are broken beyond repair. And that includes modern day finance.Ming Ding-a-Lingnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-3321930478910534022016-01-02T12:51:36.226-08:002016-01-02T12:51:36.226-08:00Comprehensive post. Thanks.
WRT the AAII sentime...Comprehensive post. Thanks. <br /><br />WRT the AAII sentiment survey, the "neutral" percentage is possibly more informative than the bull-bear spread. Here's a quote from the linked article: <br />"The best contrarian signal occurred not when investors were unusually optimistic or pessimistic, but rather when they described themselves as being neutral (defined by the survey as expecting stock prices to be unchanged over the next six months). Unusually high levels of neutral sentiment have been followed by a median 26-week rise in the S&P 500 of 8.6% and a median 52-week rise in the S&P 500 of 17.7%. In contrast, the S&P 500 had a median return of 5.2% and 10.7%, respectively, over all 26-week and 52-week periods throughout the survey’s history. Equally notable, the large-cap index was up 83.3% of all 26-week periods and 88.1% of all 52-week periods following an unusually high neutral sentiment reading." http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/analyzing-the-aaii-sentiment-survey-without-hindsight<br /><br />A very high 51.3% of investors are "neutral" as of the most recent survey, which looks like it's the highest since Feb 6, 2003, when 51.4% were neutral.<br /><br />Warm regards,Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00277480188484694980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-49040689227322364052015-12-24T03:22:30.499-08:002015-12-24T03:22:30.499-08:00you said there
"High operating risk: .... Hi...you said there<br /><br />"High operating risk: .... High financial leverage": <br />Can you give a practical examples for the mere mortals Sir?<br /><br />Thank you!micheehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05937230965190972040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-4149121702695665852015-12-17T16:39:05.512-08:002015-12-17T16:39:05.512-08:00Good read, i agree with your analysis, 2016 a rece...Good read, i agree with your analysis, 2016 a recession is very possible. The current bull market is the 3rd longest on record the last time I checked. Where ever the market goes, let's hope we are on the right side of it.Trinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05202578384891726849noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-32472303750932231312015-12-15T02:51:19.120-08:002015-12-15T02:51:19.120-08:00This is one of the best news on the web about this...This is one of the best news on the web about this topic. I also search many times, but I found now.Nifty Future Tipshttp://www.marketmagnify.com/nifty-future-tips.phpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-45841411916040191282015-12-09T06:36:21.837-08:002015-12-09T06:36:21.837-08:00Great blog There are two scenarios to consider. Th...Great blog There are two scenarios to consider. The more optimistic one involves the market finds support somewhere and start to base through a period of sideways consolidation.Thanks for sharing......<br /><br /><a href="http://shazaniq.co.uk/fast-growth-businesses/" rel="nofollow">Get Fast Growth Business Consultancy</a> | <a href="http://shazaniq.co.uk/fast-growth-businesses/" rel="nofollow">Fast Growth Business and Problems Solution Provider</a>shazaniqhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06651133193051264875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-55975823796692236882015-11-26T04:27:13.656-08:002015-11-26T04:27:13.656-08:00wow ...what a great Article....I Learnt Too Much A...wow ...what a great Article....I Learnt Too Much About From From this ...Keep Posting....This Type Of articlesFree equity tipshttp://www.researchvia.com/equity-tips/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-77869031548616728882015-11-26T03:53:45.647-08:002015-11-26T03:53:45.647-08:00Your blog is awesome and also information is good ...Your blog is awesome and also information is good keep it up...............<br /><a title="Stock Market Tips " href="http://www.capitalstars.com/services" rel="nofollow"> Stock Market Tips </a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05911804206984281993noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-78316601968339846512015-11-25T18:47:29.175-08:002015-11-25T18:47:29.175-08:00Cam,
I really enjoyed your post. Intelligent, wel...Cam,<br /><br />I really enjoyed your post. Intelligent, well written, interesting perspective. A perspective I had not considered myself. In terms of this topic being appropriate for this forum, I say absolutely. Assimilation vs the alternative would result in two very different economic outcomes over the long haul. <br /><br />Thanks for a great article.<br /><br />JimJimnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-12495512299444698622015-11-24T15:49:16.592-08:002015-11-24T15:49:16.592-08:00Cam,
Great post! I thoroughly enjoy when you shar...Cam,<br /><br />Great post! I thoroughly enjoy when you share your opinions on hotly debated political topics. Your commentary reflects a deep understanding of history and, in my opinion, political commentary means absolute nothing without an understanding of historical events. I would like to add that in addition to knowledge of historical events, I find very little value in political commentary that is written by pundits without at least a decent knowledge of finance and economics. There is nothing that drives global politics quite like money and history, thus putting you in a unique position to give a quality opinion on most all issues. Therefore, I disagree with anyone who says different.<br /><br />As far as this topic, I very much agree with you. However, because of the reasons described above, if I did not agree I would still love to read your well-rounded and politically unbiased opinion on whatever the issue may be. <br /><br />Keep up the great work!<br /><br />RobertRobert Hammerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102619620539722241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-67087085674951511602015-11-24T05:49:44.430-08:002015-11-24T05:49:44.430-08:00The mkt could eventually be devastated by rising r...The mkt could eventually be devastated by rising rates coupled w/: a) evidence of inflationary preasures; b) rising inflation; c) high leverage; and d) earnings recession. a & b seem to be on their way, although softly on a historical basis; c & d already w/us. What do you think?Nico Chialvanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-46656999290910841252015-11-17T06:40:07.683-08:002015-11-17T06:40:07.683-08:00See my reply on NASDAQ breadth here:
https://twit...See my reply on NASDAQ breadth here:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/HumbleStudent/status/666626638851870720<br />Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-51420700810538507722015-11-17T02:23:57.979-08:002015-11-17T02:23:57.979-08:00Cam: you need to look at the breath on the NASDAQ....Cam: you need to look at the breath on the NASDAQ. It is terrible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-83513515580185358792015-11-16T16:38:20.193-08:002015-11-16T16:38:20.193-08:00Cam, I have to admit to seeing the title, "Do...Cam, I have to admit to seeing the title, "Don't worry about bad breath," rather than breadth. My first thought was,"I've gotta read this post!" <br />This article is well worth reading, regardless of the state of one's breath.<br />Thanks<br />NathanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-61928203423521421262015-11-10T09:30:17.290-08:002015-11-10T09:30:17.290-08:00This comment has been removed by the author.oldmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10698369519022593127noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-8763581444470028182015-11-09T21:03:43.852-08:002015-11-09T21:03:43.852-08:00Nice macro insights. Thanks for the great article....Nice macro insights. Thanks for the great article. I want to make a request though. If possible please also cover outside of United States more since there are promising growth/cheaper countries outside of the US such as Europe, Japan, India(a bit expensive), EM etc. As a retail investor doing asset allocation is quite hard with the unlimited amount of data out there and not knowing who to trust.Bennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-41795862596568191332015-11-09T15:48:49.882-08:002015-11-09T15:48:49.882-08:00@Anonymous at 12:15 AM... First of all, get a jo...@Anonymous at 12:15 AM... First of all, get a job so you don't have to write blog comments in the middle of the night.<br /><br />Second, neither Mr Hui nor myself missed the October rally. Mr Hui even posts his trading signals for all to see.<br /><br />I was / am arguing against the idea that the market can continue to rally on ever higher debt levels and ever higher P/E multiples, while the underlying economics (like global trade, employment, and other things needed to service debt) remain weak.<br /><br />Whatever the clowns at the Fed do, piling ever more debt on top of too much debt is not going to help anything. Normalizing interest rates might give the elderly a little spending money, and will make insolvent pensions slightly less insolvent.<br /><br />But more debt will just make G7 countries more bankrupt. Its time to admit that G7 debt (even US Treasuries) are not money good. There is no free lunchAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-22940133993979399622015-11-09T11:40:10.441-08:002015-11-09T11:40:10.441-08:00If you look at the arrows on the first chart, I di...If you look at the arrows on the first chart, I did not miss the October rally.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-92188355012669945742015-11-09T06:03:56.175-08:002015-11-09T06:03:56.175-08:00Well, I enjoyed reading it....Well, I enjoyed reading it....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-24481915553594832102015-11-09T00:45:43.036-08:002015-11-09T00:45:43.036-08:006:15pm, I am guessing you are bitter about missing...6:15pm, I am guessing you are bitter about missing the October rally huh?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-26965905023076611242015-11-08T18:15:19.722-08:002015-11-08T18:15:19.722-08:00It seems to me that we have heard this story befor...It seems to me that we have heard this story before... like every holiday season into January since 2009. Every holiday season, a new spending budget rolls out of Washington DC, with a deluge of debt that will never be repaid. Some politician mumbles about a "summer of recovery".<br /><br />Wall Street rallies in anticipation of an economic recovery that Main Street never sees.<br /><br />I was just re-reading an article in the Wall Street Journal from last week (04-Nov) interviewing the CEO of shipping line Maersk. Global trade activity (what Main Street sees) is once again not corroborating what Wall Street is selling.<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/maersk-line-to-cut-staff-as-market-deteriorates-1446623156<br /><br />I am not disputing whether some "market technician" thinks he sees a bullish formation in stock prices, I am just pointing out that change in price does not mean a change in value.<br /><br />The real economy remains weak and drowning in too much debt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com