tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post296152982718705175..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: A new secular bull? Don't count on it!Cam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-41395994254679157742013-08-18T23:52:14.026-07:002013-08-18T23:52:14.026-07:00If this is a megaphone top, then we would excpect ...If this is a megaphone top, then we would excpect a run to new highs, followed by a throwback decline, then . . . new highs, right? But not at these valuations. We might then see a lot of backing and filling, lots of frustration among the bulls, improved valuations, then new highs. If inflation picks up while market moves sideways, that could provide the valuaton compression that the market needs to take off. <br /><br />I think this chart answers the Anonymous's question above. <br /><br />http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/<br /><br />Doesn't look like a great time for a multi-year bull run to 4000 or 5000 on the S&P, does it? Remember that in the 70s, the S&P hit 103 in 1982. It hit 1500 just 20 years later. <br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/spx1960.html bjdubsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-28037577270004202072013-08-09T17:24:57.237-07:002013-08-09T17:24:57.237-07:00what were the valuation metrics each time the mkt ...what were the valuation metrics each time the mkt broke out of the range in the past?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com