tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post5000965308104344743..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Don't be too eager to get bearishCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-268512775399783082011-11-06T16:52:26.425-08:002011-11-06T16:52:26.425-08:00Cam Hui, thank you as always for the wealth of inf...Cam Hui, thank you as always for the wealth of information and sharing that you bestow on us, your readers.<br /><br />I have a stern comment for reader and commenter Tiho, whose work I have read with great respect elsewhere, on his own site, and as a guest commenter on other blogs.<br /><br />Tiho, please keep in mind that you are in Mr. Hui’s house, venting in his forum, and that your demeanor is not that of a respectful guest.<br /><br />On the morning of October 5th, well before US market open, you (Tiho) wrote the following: <br /><br />“I think we are setting up a great buying opportunity right now between 1010 to 1040 on the S&P as the majority of what I said above {ie excessively bearish and fearful comments by others, which you recapped} has already been discounted!”<br /><br />If your prescient words are taken broadly, it was an excellent cautionary alert to Bulls not to join the general despair of the moment. If taken as specific investment advice, the dust is still thickening on the limit orders placed at that specific level.<br /><br />If someone only took that one exact comment, made on October 5, you are a complete laughingstock. Ha Ha. To be so right, and to be so greedy as to demand a lower price of a market that you yourself said was poised to take off like a rocket, and be left behind. <br /><br />Do you see how unfair of me it would be to say that? I won't press the point. But throwing up comments by Mr. Hui from September is in a similar vein. <br /><br />Public market prognosticators have to be like cornerbacks in American football or goaltenders in ice hockey-- mentally sturdy, and possessed of a blessedly short memory. New patterns are coming all the time. Past is past.<br /><br />At every point Mr. Hui has shared with us all the charts, commentary, etc. which have influenced him. We are all adults capable of drawing our own conclusions from them. And the most adult thing that can be said about the investment universe is the old maxim, “It’s OK to be wrong about the Market. Just don't be wrong for too long.”<br /><br />In theology and ethics it is very wrong to flipflop or be inconsistent. In investment it is necessary for survival, and is called flexibility.<br /><br />I think that you are banging a drum for your own website in another man’s living room. That is all I am saying. Otherwise, congratulations on being very right directionally as to the recent market movements.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07748117214432133196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-62717218921556117402011-11-03T20:50:15.351-07:002011-11-03T20:50:15.351-07:00Fabian Hug said:
"You give wise advice...&q...Fabian Hug said: <br /><br />"You give wise advice..."<br /><br />If I can recall right, this blog was ultra bearish in early September towards early October. As a matter of fact, the author was so bearish, he expected VIX to spike to 80 or 90 like in 2008. <br /><br />That expectation came just before we bottomed. I made a series of posts letting the author know he was too bearish and we were about to rally proving his call wrong, even if it turns out to be just a dead cat bounce towards 1250.<br /><br />Now, the blogs opinion has capitulated in its view towards 2% yield on 30Yr Bond, retest of March 09 lows on the S&P, VIX spiking to 80 and a Commodities crash. <br /><br />All of a sudden, the author has become bullish. So bullish intact, that he recommends having no short exposure!<br /><br />I am not 100% sure if we are in a start of a new cyclical bear market, or in a continuation of a cyclical bull that started in March 2009 - I think no one is 100% sure of anything in markets. However, I am sure of one thing:<br /><br />There are so many bullish sentiment indicators that are screaming warning signals right now and yet the blog is now recommending no short positions. Maybe these warning signals are not going to come to fruition and are just advising caution for the time being. Maybe they will, and this will prove to be a bear market rally that lasted only towards 200 MA.<br /><br />Nevertheless, this is the worst time to be bullish and the author goes as far as saying that its not a wise time to be bearish and advises to have no short positions here. How is this wise? This is terrible advice not just for traders, but for longer term investors who want to be hedge here if they already bought at the bottom.<br /><br />Shouldn't one be buying low? Shouldn't a financial advisor be recommending one to buy low as well?<br /><br />That is not wise.<br /><br />I rather side with Corporate Insiders, who were buying like crazy during 09th of August at 1,100 and got it right, contrary to the opinion of this blog. They are now selling heavily for only the third time this year (first two being Feb and May 2011 - both tops), contrary to this blog.<br /><br />My post has less to do with fundamental reasons, and more to do with markets. Markets do not follow economy all the time, but it is amazing how well of a job they did switching bears into bulls in less than three weeks. I was personally lucky to be able to call the bottom right on the day on my blog (post: <a href="http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2011/10/equities-sentiment-overview-part-ii.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>), but it is also thanks to blogs like these which gives us a perfect sense of consensus thinking!Tihohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10336666083094327126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-82664094723984873662011-11-02T12:04:55.654-07:002011-11-02T12:04:55.654-07:00No matter how you prop it up or buttress it, the t...No matter how you prop it up or buttress it, the tottering tower of debt, both in the US and Europe will continue to totter. The future was mortgaged by creating money ahead of creating wealth,via debt, and now the chickens are coming home to roost. Despite bullish factors, any major deterioration, (a matter of when not if), in the European situation, or the Chinese for that matter, could trigger a massive selloff.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.mindmagic123.com" rel="nofollow"> hypnosis hypnotherapy Los Angeles </a>Holistic Hypnosis & Hypnotherapy Los Angeleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09658096456587093353noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-72065456135728567722011-11-02T10:47:34.969-07:002011-11-02T10:47:34.969-07:00From our analysis at http://blog.frontierstrategyg...From our analysis at http://blog.frontierstrategygroup.com:<br /><br />Frontier Strategy Group sees a greater than 50% chance that Greece will leave the Euro. Companies have two months to put contingency plans in place for Greece. Companies choosing to remain in Greece will need to develop strategies to finance suppliers and distributors as credit from Greek banks will dry up. Opportunistic companies are considering using Greece as an export hub, as leaving the EU would likely devalue the local currency by 50%, making Greece an attractive long-term play from a cost point of view.<br /><br />While many emerging markets will be impacted by the crisis, leading companies have already identified winners and are prioritizing resource allocations for those markets. India, Indonesia and Africa are set to be the biggest winners as domestic demand is driving robust growth in those markets.Mitchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00807819496816882147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-16002806773173173552011-11-02T09:54:37.638-07:002011-11-02T09:54:37.638-07:00You give wise advice and even if I can't stand...You give wise advice and even if I can't stand the actions of these guys, we've to face the fact that they conduct the orchestra. Going against them is forgetting that money talks.fabian hughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08508005656148304061noreply@blogger.com