tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post5964780632774790097..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: How the USD explains and predicts stock pricesCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-77869031548616728882015-11-26T03:53:45.647-08:002015-11-26T03:53:45.647-08:00Your blog is awesome and also information is good ...Your blog is awesome and also information is good keep it up...............<br /><a title="Stock Market Tips " href="http://www.capitalstars.com/services" rel="nofollow"> Stock Market Tips </a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05911804206984281993noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-15472705178728810962015-07-28T00:27:59.712-07:002015-07-28T00:27:59.712-07:00USD and stock prices this is good explain in the b...USD and stock prices this is good explain in the blog with a deep knowledge to express in the market for various to solve a difficult problems in a minute.<br /><a href="http://www.marketmagnify.com/nifty-future-tips.php" rel="nofollow"> Nifty Futures Trading Tips</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15146746278360226224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-13532159517998720572015-07-26T17:22:18.591-07:002015-07-26T17:22:18.591-07:00I know you aren't responsible for what New Dea...I know you aren't responsible for what New Deal Democrat writes. I just want to point out that she/he is perpetuating a misleading understanding of how the economy actually works by confusing GDP for "the economy", when in fact it is just a measure of only part of the economy, and due to what it counts and doesn't count it induces bad policy responses. Secondarily, I am trying to nudge you into being as brilliant in your understanding of economics as your are of stock market technical analysis.Rick T.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-771443664708259102015-07-26T15:54:05.790-07:002015-07-26T15:54:05.790-07:00The 70% figure was a quote from New Deal democrat,...The 70% figure was a quote from New Deal democrat, not me.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-3781466251012414472015-07-26T14:20:21.167-07:002015-07-26T14:20:21.167-07:00I'm not disagreeing with your market forecast,...I'm not disagreeing with your market forecast, which certainly seems reasonable. I just want to point out a mistake you make that is extremely common. You say that consumer spending is 70% of the US economy. What consumer spending is actually ~70% of is GDP, but GDP is a very flawed measure of the economy. It doesn't count what are called intermediate goods. <br /><br />Is the steel industry part of the economy? I think so, and I imagine you do too, but it is only counted in GDP to the extent that steel ends up in a final good, often a consumer item such as a car. If the steel industry doubled its production and built inventories in a given quarter, or completely shut down and worked off inventory, neither of those things would count in GDP except indirectly, if sales of cars were stable. Naturally, when you only count consumer goods and government spending, then consumer goods and government spending seem a lot more important than if you count other things that are just as much a part of the economy as those two are.<br /><br />If one adds in what all the intermediate goods producers are doing, the economy is almost twice as big as measured by GDP, so consumer spending is actually closer to 40% of Gross Output, as the BEA calls its new measure that takes the intermediate economy into account.<br /><br />This explains why stimulating consumer spending isn't as effective as economists think. The intermediate economy is a big user of financing, so it is people saving money, not consuming it, that helps it the most. This makes Keynesians' heads explode, but until people understand that GDP is just an artificial and flawed measure called GDP, and is not "the economy", they will continue to misunderstand what helps and hurts economic growth.Rick T.noreply@blogger.com