tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post6200634421371475810..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Waiting for a ride on the PhoenixCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-57533761538969105142009-05-01T16:52:00.000-07:002009-05-01T16:52:00.000-07:00"The chart below shows the relative returns o..."The chart below shows the relative returns of the small cap Russell 1000 relative to the large cap S&P 500."<br /><br />Please clarify. The Russell 1000 is <B><I>not</I></B> a small-cap index, but your chart is labeled as the S&P 500 against the Russell 2000, which <B><I>is</I></B> a small-cap index.Trader Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03826070966823094363noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-25992986349412250192008-12-09T14:43:00.000-08:002008-12-09T14:43:00.000-08:00Correction, I was shooting from the hip on my last...Correction, I was shooting from the hip on my last comment - Price to book, not book of 0.2 - CCI went from $1 to $45 over the course of 4 years, so I guess that's a 4500% return. Company has yet to make an actual profit during this time.<BR/><BR/>BTW, I'd also like to shamelessly pump a potential "Phoenix" stock that, again, is not even close to insolvent:<BR/><BR/>CIEN - telecom equipment maker.<BR/><BR/>This stock went through a reverse split not too long ago. It's flush with cash and just recently started making a substantial profit again. Split adjusted, it's trading at an all time low, and this is accounting for the dot-com bust, during which it was one of the more prominent poster childs that barely survived. It's down nearly 90% from the highs it reached last year. Debt to equity of 0.74, but here's the clincher - it has more cash than debt, to say nothing about the rest of its assets. Trading at half of current cash. Not quite Ben Graham, but probably about as close as you can get in techland.<BR/><BR/>I'd ride this stock into the mid 20s, where I may consider selling half my current stake. Or, if dreams come true, we ride a second tech wave induced by TV/internet convergence to even greater highs of stupidity before the second spotting of the black swan.<BR/><BR/>Happy hunting!Ricardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12883078778852657447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-38114934202777159222008-12-09T14:24:00.000-08:002008-12-09T14:24:00.000-08:00I don't think you even need to take the risk of sp...I don't think you even need to take the risk of speculating on potentially insolvent companies.<BR/><BR/>Look at CCI during 2002-2004. This stock posted a 3000% return from its low, even though it had a positive cash flow, and a book value of 0.2 at its low. Hardly insolvent.Ricardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12883078778852657447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-60196372588846736502008-06-13T14:52:00.000-07:002008-06-13T14:52:00.000-07:00Please list your Phoenix picks now so that I can b...Please list your Phoenix picks now so that I can buy them before you and many others do.<BR/><BR/>Thankszenalgorithmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10220379863647317043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-71923177689333957092008-05-29T19:04:00.000-07:002008-05-29T19:04:00.000-07:00HenryI don't have any models or indicators that sh...Henry<BR/><BR/>I don't have any models or indicators that show whether the market is likely to make a new low or not. <BR/><BR/>All we can do is wait for new developments and for the tape to give us a clue of what would happen. For example, the market will likely come back down to test the old low - I would like to see how it behaves at that point.<BR/><BR/>CamCam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-14716873992865766502008-05-29T16:47:00.000-07:002008-05-29T16:47:00.000-07:00Mr Hui,That's a tremendous observation of the smal...Mr Hui,<BR/><BR/>That's a tremendous observation of the small cap effect. I never noticed the initial underperformance! Given that we've been in a bear market rally, do you think the S&P 500 will make a new low when the bear market resumes?<BR/><BR/>Henry Bee<BR/>Vancouver, CanadaHenry Beehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12176365362835822750noreply@blogger.com