tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post7862060922531745383..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: American (financial) exceptionalismCam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-23381454799172183662015-04-05T11:47:11.949-07:002015-04-05T11:47:11.949-07:00Barry Ritholtz’s blog posted the article “War Make...Barry Ritholtz’s blog posted the article “War Makes Us Poor” (Apr. 30, 2014) indicating he is (or at least was) aware of the negative impact of war:<br />http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/04/war-makes-us-poor/<br /><br />In the recent article you cited he does seem to contradict this with statements like <i>“After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the U.S. entry into the war did nothing to slow market gains. “</i> However, I agree in the sense that attempting to trade based on news of local wars is likely to be fruitless as you would need to be a superb forecaster and also take a large (risky) position to positively influence the direction of your balanced portfolio. Over-reaction and panic selling due to geopolitical turmoil news is far more likely than trading successfully.<br /><br />I’m curious how you would propose preparing for the impact of a major, empire destroying war? I can only imagine two useful responses:<br /><br />1) invest globally with minimal home country bias.<br />2) be prepared to move self and assets to a safer country if your government slides toward the abyss of adopting policies that promote world war or undermining property rights. Good luck making that call.Perry R.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-57246436472433891392015-04-04T09:55:22.069-07:002015-04-04T09:55:22.069-07:00"USA loses from now on will either be of the ..."USA loses from now on will either be of the non-catastrophic guerrilla variety, or the really catastrophic type" doesn't that statement assume the state, act and method of war to be a static thing? Nascent cyber & biological battlefields & battles are only two examples of where winners/and loser will/may be decided in future conflict. War, like any communal human activity, is fluid and creates new expressions of itself, thereby creating new winners and losers. Put more simply, there's never been a winner that remained a winner forever, and the their reasons for loosing were always unforeseen.SGreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-55013047734380103432015-04-04T08:35:30.382-07:002015-04-04T08:35:30.382-07:00Otto,
Don't forget that Britain never saw unf...Otto,<br /><br />Don't forget that Britain never saw unfriendly foreign troops on its soil in the last 100 years, but real equity returns were quite disappointing compared to the US.Cam Hui, CFAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-715775775191936242015-04-03T16:55:36.312-07:002015-04-03T16:55:36.312-07:00Interesting, but ultimately a variant of the "...Interesting, but ultimately a variant of the "sh_tload of nuclear weapons" foreign policy, which states that any war that USA loses from now on will either be of the non-catastrophic guerrilla variety, or the really catastrophic type. In the case of the latter coming to pass, stock markets would be the least of our worries.Ottohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03069822714021884725noreply@blogger.com