tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post8591136743846763072..comments2024-03-08T01:03:44.522-08:00Comments on Humble Student of the Markets: Where are we on the roadmap?Cam Hui, CFAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09672203690656029787noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-816559531110064247.post-73162879256088915292009-01-16T09:23:00.000-08:002009-01-16T09:23:00.000-08:00I'm not sure I agree. Every situation is unique, ...I'm not sure I agree. Every situation is unique, and while understanding the past is helpful as a lens to interpret future events, the fact that past recessions lasted 18-24 months does not guarantee that future ones will as well. A perfect example of this would be the Nikkei, which, as I'm sure you know, is still falling after 25 years. <BR/><BR/>For me, I am concerned about the total amount of credit market debt, which will continue to exert deflationary pressure regardless of Central Bank actions, and the inevitable selling pressure in the next ten years from an aging population entering their retirement years. <BR/><BR/>I have some long-term equity exposure, but I suspect this bear market could last much longer than most folks expect. <BR/><BR/>Either way, I appreciate your arguments and enjoy the commentary.Kieran McCarthyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11606919516884153997noreply@blogger.com