What if the Magnificent Seven are done?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
• Trading model: Bearish (Last changed from “neutral” on 06-Sep-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

A Hindenburg warning

What if the Magnificent Seven are done with their bull phase? As megacap growth stocks comprise roughly 40% of S&P 500 index weight, the math becomes increasingly challenging. The rest of the market will have to do the heavy lifting in order for the S&P 500 to advance.

The odds of that scenario becoming reality is rising. The market just flashed a Hindenburg Omen warning. In plain English, the ominously named Hindenburg Omen occurs when a highly bifurcated market loses momentum and starts to turn down. While one Hindenburg signal can be safely ignored, a cluster should make investors sit up and take notice. In the last 10 years, there have been 13 such clusters. Nine (pink bars) have resolved bearishly, while four (grey bars) were benign. As the accompanying chart shows, the market has flashed another cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals for five consecutive weeks.

 

 

The odds aren’t in the bulls’ favour, particularly when the bifurcation is evident between megcap growth, which comprise about 40% of S&P 500 weight, and the rest of the index. Even if the S&P 493 is strong, it’s difficult to make the math work if the Magnificent Seven significantly weakens.

The full post can be found here.

The slow march to fiscal dominance

Mario Draghi is known as the ECB President who said that he would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. Now, his report on European Union competitiveness is designed to save the EU, and it’s caused quite a stir. Draghi identified the issues of EU competitiveness as poor productivity, caused by fragmentation of industrial policy along national lines, and a lack of co-ordination and focus across policy lines, such as fiscal, trade and foreign policies. 

As a solution, Draghi is calling for a re-focus of industrial policy and a minimum annual investment of “€750 to €800 billion…based on the latest Commission estimates, corresponding to 4.4-4.7% of EU GDP in 2023. For comparison, investment under the Marshall Plan between 1948–51 was equivalent to 1–2% of EU GDP”. The investment would have to be financed mainly by euro area debt.

 

If implemented, the Draghi Plan will put the eurozone on the road to fiscal dominance. Currently, euro area debt averages 88.6% of GDP, which is just short of the 90% guideline specified by Reinhart & Rogoff when a sovereign becomes at risk of significant and prolonged reductions in economic growth. By comparison, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio stands at 121%. However, eurozone countries have arguably less fiscal room as member states can’t print their own currency and must rely on the European Central Bank.

This will cement developed economies’ path to fiscal dominance. Investors will need to prepare accordingly.

 

The full post can be found here.

Why the correction may not be over

Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 struggles and regained its 50 dma, the corrective phase may not be over.

 

 

Here are the challenges the bulls face.

 

The full post can be found here.

Trading the seasonal weakness

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

 

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 20-Aug-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

A pre-election roadmap

I pointed out before that the stock market is approaching a period of seasonal weakness and the pullback is appearing roughly on cue. September is historically weak but the bearish impulse usually occurs in the second half of the month, but I regard seasonality as a climate forecast while market analysis is more indicative of the daily weather.

 
Here is my rough roadmap for the period before the U.S. election.

The full post can be found here.

Sector leadership review: Bear market vibes?

Now that the 2s10s yield curve has un-inverted, a review of sector leadership is showing bearish vibes. In particular, the relative performance of defensive sectors is turning up.

 

I conducted an extensive sector and factor rotation review to determine the extent of the damage.
 

The full post can be found here.

So much for the prelude (to a correction)

Mid-week market update: When I wrote on the weekend that the stock market was undergoing a prelude to a correction, I never dreamed that the S&P 500 would skid -2.1% on the first trading day in September to test its 50 dma.

 

 

What happened?

 

The full post can be found here.

Prelude to a correction

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 26-Jul-2024)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 20-Aug-2024)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

Glass half  full?

Is the glass half full or half empty? Is breadth back?

The S&P 500 continues to test a key resistance level. While the equal-weighted S&P 500 rose to an all-time high, the small-cap Russell 2000 is struggling below its all-time high.

 

I believe the stock market is stalling and investors are seeing the prelude to a correction.

The full post can be found here.