Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Saturday, July 12, 2025
An Update on Gold: Time for a Pause?
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
Tariff Man Returns
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Sunday, July 6, 2025
Should You Embrace the Melt-up?
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
The Return of Irrational Exuberance
The bank noted that the measure, which is calculated from derivatives metrics, volatility technicals and sentiment signals inferred from options markets, has historically averaged around 7%, but occasionally it peaks above 10% as during the Dotcom era of the late 1990s, and the meme-stock frenzy of 2021. The gauge currently sits around 10.7%, data compiled by Barclays show.
At the moment, the S&P 500 is a little extended while grinding out new highs and it’s on an upper Bollinger Band ride. Should traders embrace or fade the melt-up?
Saturday, July 5, 2025
Can a New Bull Begin at a Forward P/E of 22?
This model has shown a strong track record over the years. If you had sold in late January and bought back in when the S&P 500 made a new high last week, you would have missed the tariff drama drawdowns of the last few months.
In my discussions with investors, one key question keeps coming up. The S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 22. Can a new bull truly begin at such elevated valuations?
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Broadening Breadth?
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Sunday, June 29, 2025
The Animal Spirits are Back in Charge!
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 16-May-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A Speculative Breakout
The animal spirits are back and the market is becoming frothy.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Saturday, June 28, 2025
The Surprise Victor of the Israel-Iran War
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Wednesday, June 25, 2025
A Forthy Breakout
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Sunday, June 22, 2025
Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 16-May-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
The Minority Report
As we write these words, the U.S. has chosen to enter the war against Iran. The extremely thin contract-for-difference trading for the Dow is down about -1%. Is this a time to embrace the contrarian adage of “buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets”?
I have been fairly cautious about the U.S. equity market, but like all good investors, I would like to consider the bull case. While my base case still calls for a trading range for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year, and the index is still flashing a negative RSI divergence warning, I am open to the possibility that stock prices could break out to all-time highs. I estimate the odds of that bullish as one-in-three or four.
Here are my reasons to be bullish.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Saturday, June 21, 2025
Forecasting Fed Policy: Hints From Hard Data
The “dot plot” took a surprising hawkish turn. Seven FOMC members expect no rate cuts in 2025, compared to four in March, and two expect a single quarter-point cut, compared to four in June. But the hawkish pivot occurred against a backdrop of uncertainty as Powell admitted that the projected policy path is only a guess. The Fed’s forecast of inflation and growth has become clouded in the face of the unknown effects of tariffs: “We haven’t been through a situation like this, and I think we have to be humble about our ability to forecast it.”
It is not surprising that Fed policy makers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude as they watch for clues from the hard economic data.
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
The Three Most Important Words in Investing
Sunday, June 15, 2025
How to Capitalize on Narrative Volatility
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 16-May-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Waiting for the Next Shoe to Drop
Michael Kantro at Piper Sandler recently highlighted the unusual elevated levels of narrative volatility in AAII sentiment. As a consequence, the volatility has created “a lot of false-start leadership moments for rate-sensitives and small caps”.In other words, when does the next shoe drop and how can traders capitalize on the break?
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Saturday, June 14, 2025
A Preview of the Trump Fed
No serious economist takes Trump’s desire to cut rates by 1% seriously. However, as Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair nears its end, it is useful to consider how a Trump-dominated Federal Reserve might affect future policy in the future.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Wednesday, June 11, 2025
I want to believe
As the S&P 500 breaks out at the 6000 resistance level and Street strategists scramble to their index targets, I also want to believe in that stocks can go higher, but I have my doubts.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Sunday, June 8, 2025
A cresting tide?
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “neutral” on 16-May-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Weak Breadth and Narrow Leadership
As the S&P 500 tests a key resistance level, the underlying market action is starting to feel like a cresting tide. Beneath the surface, the equal-weighted index has yet to reach its own resistance level, indicating poor breadth and narrow leadership.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Saturday, June 7, 2025
Why "Sell America" isn't equity bearish
The top panel of the chart shows that S&P 500 has handily beaten global markets since the GFC and it has retreated back to the rising trend line. Conventional technical analysis calls for investors to buy the dip, with a stop loss just below the trend line. I argue for the Sell America trade of minimizing exposure to USD assets in a broadly diversified portfolio.
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Wednesday, June 4, 2025
The S&P 500 nears a ceiling
The full post can be found here.
Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.
Sunday, June 1, 2025
Bullish exhaustion = Pullback or consolidation
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “neutral” on 16-May-2025)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Bullish Exhaustion
The accompanying chart shows how the S&P 500 responded in the extended trading hours and during the trading day to important news. Why did the S&P 500 rally 2.1% after Trump announced he was pausing the 50% tariffs on the EU for a month? Why did the index initially rally but ended the trading day with just a 0.4% gain last Thursday when the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed “Liberation Day” tariffs and the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for fentanyl smuggling?
Saturday, May 31, 2025
Don't buy that TACO just yet
It is in that context when, later in the day, the three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade unanimously ruled against the Trump Administration in VOS Selections v U.S. and struck down a whole range of tariffs by citing a lack of authority. The most equity bullish outcome would have been Trump taking this legal exit ramp to retreat from his trade war. Instead, he doubled down with the following social media message, possibly egged on by the TACO question. What was even more disturbing was the inclusion of Pepe the frog (my highlight), which was an image appropriated by White supremacists during the 2016 election.
Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Don't just obsess over NVIDIA
The full post can be found here.