The headline on Marketwatch blared that the BP spill may lead to higher oil prices. Indeed, Jeff Rubin has expressed similar sentiments about how the Deepwater Horizon disaster is likely to affect the supply situation for oil (see examples here and here).
I agree wholeheartedly. My latest monthly comment for Qwest Investment Management details these same supply concerns. I would also add the possibility of higher heating demand from a global cooling cycle.
There is a controversial view that solar cycles are responsible for the warming and cooling cycles on earth. The English astronomer William Herschel noted a relationship between sunspot cycles and wheat prices and that link has been confirmed by other researchers.
Right now, the sun is undergoing an extraordinarily quiet period and tracking previous periods of global cooling. If the climate were to cool, which would raise heating demand, and oil supplies fall because of higher operating and environmental standards – look out!
Come and read it all here.