Wednesday, May 8, 2013

The 3rd Way in the cyclical/defensive debate

Here's a thought. About a month ago, I wondered out loud that whether the defensive sector rally could be better characterized as the outperformance of Value over Growth stocks (see A Value rally, or a defensive sector rally?)

Now that cyclical (and growth oriented) sectors have surged relative to the defensive sectors, the Value stocks have similarly pulled back against Growth stocks. The chart below of the Russell 1000 Value Index relative to the Russell 1000 Growth Index shows that the relative uptrend of Value vs. Growth is still intact.

If my analysis of Value vs. Growth is the more appropriate framework, then it may be time to start buying Value now (and it may represent the third way in the cyclical vs. defensive sector debate of whether the cyclical rebound is a fakeout or true revival).

Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

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