Saturday, November 28, 2015

Waiting for Santa Claus

Trend Model signal summary
Trend Model signal: Neutral
Trading model: Bullish

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses the trading model component of the Trend Model seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend getting better (bullish) or worse (bearish)?" The history of actual out-of-sample (not backtested) signals of the trading model are shown by the arrows in the chart below.

Update schedule: I generally update Trend Model readings on my blog on weekends and tweet any changes during the week at @humblestudent.

Good news and bad news
The market action last week saw some good news and some bad news. The bad news came in the form of weakness in the Greater China equity markets, but that was offset by the goods news of upside breakouts in Europe and a positive relative strength showing by US small caps. When I net it all out, I remain constructive that equity bulls will see another visit from Santa Claus this year.

The complete post is at our new website here.

Blog Notice
The Humble Student of the Markets blog will become a subscription driven site on December 1 (see Why this isn't investment advice (and a site update)). The new site is live now at, Please come by and take a look and please change your bookmarks accordingly.

The new site will not be accepting subscribers until December 1. We have an Early Bird discount offer of 14 months for the price of 12 at USD 199.99. You can get on the list for that offer if you contact me at this link here, but hurry as the cutoff for the signup for that offer expires at midnight November 30, 2015. (If you have already emailed me in the past or responded through my previous survey, you are already on the list there is no need to do so again.)

Media, press professionals and blog aggregators with email domains confirming their affiliations are invited to apply for free subscription access (cam at humblestudentofthemarkets dot com).

No comments: