Trend Model signal summary
Trend Model signal: Neutral
Trading model: Bearish (downgrade)
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses the trading model component of the Trend Model seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend getting better (bullish) or worse (bearish)?" The history of actual out-of-sample (not backtested) signals of the trading model are shown by the arrows in the chart below.
Update schedule: I generally update Trend Model readings on my blog on weekends and tweet any changes during the week at @humblestudent.
I am not bearish!
First of all, I want to set the record straight. Despite the headline about a possible US stock market top in 2016, I am not intermediate term bearish on stocks right now.
There is an adage amongst technical analysts that while bottoms are events, tops are processes. The purpose of this post to outline the process of how the US equity market is likely to top out in 2016. I don't mean to convey the impression that I believe that equities go down right away. In fact, there is likely some upside left before the market makes its ultimate top before turning down. Let me explain.
If you signed up for the notification of our Early Bird Special Offer but did not receive it, I have had some reports that they got classified as spam so please check your spam folder. Otherwise you can email me at cam at humblestudentofthemarkets dot com and I will send you the link.
As well, I would like to remind readers that we will cease to accept new subscribers as of January 15, 2016 as a way to better control the growth of our new community. Hurry, the deadline is coming up faster than you think.
Welcome to my blog Humble Student of the Markets. These are my observations and musings about the markets (mostly equities), hedge funds and investments in general.My experience has been a quantitative equity manager in US, Canada, EAFE and Emerging Markets and commentator on hedge funds and their returns patterns.
DISCLAIMER This is not investment advice! I know nothing about you, your risk preferences, your portfolio or your investment horizon. I have no idea whether any of my opinions expressed are suitable for you.
None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. I may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.