Wednesday, August 24, 2016

The market catches round number-itis

Mid-week market update: On the weekend (see The market's hidden message for the economy, rates and stock prices), I wrote that the short-term outlook was more difficult to call than usual. On one hand, we were seeing broad based strength, which argued for an intermediate term bullish call. On the other hand, Urban Carmel pointed out that the market has a tendency to pause when it nears a round number. In this case, the hurdle is 2200 on SPX.

The latter scenario seems to be winning out. The market is catching a case of round number-itis for the following reasons:
  • Macro momentum became "overbought";
  • Overly bullish short-term sentiment; and
  • Deteriorating short-term breadth.
I would caution that this is purely a tactical call of a short-term SPX correction of no more than 3-5%. As I wrote two weeks ago: Be patient, it's hard to argue against the intermediate term bullish trend.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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