Thursday, September 22, 2016

How the Fed could induce a bear market in 2017

The Federal Reserve has spoken (see FOMC September statement). With three dissenting votes on the FOMC, a December rate hike is more or less baked in. The Fed will take a gradual approach to rate hikes, with the median "dot plot" forecasting a December rate hike and two more in 2017.

While the market doesn't really believe in the "dot plot" projections anymore, as actual action has consistently been below projections. This time may be different. There is a case to be made that the market is poised for a nasty upside surprise in 2017, where the pace of rate normalization will be higher than expected. Should such a scenario unfold, it would be very bearish for stock prices.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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