Monday, November 21, 2016

The Italian referendum = Next populist domino?

Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group recently tweeted the following political calendar in Europe. After the surprising Trump win, the market is closely watching for electoral surprises. Next up is the Italian referendum on December 4, 2016, in which PM Matteo Renzi has asked for revisions to the constitution in order to break the endless cycle of deadlocked and changing governments. Italy has seen over 60 governments since the Second World War. Austria will also hold its presidential election on December 4, in which far-right candidate Norbert Hofer is leading in the polls. The results are mitigated by the largely ceremonial nature of the presidential post.

The Italian referendum and Austrian vote will be followed by an election in the Netherlands, in which anti-EU Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders is leading in the polls. The French presidential election will be held in the summer, where the anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to poll second heading into the run-off race. Finally, Germany will hold its election in late 2017.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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