Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Peak small cap tax cut euphoria?

Mid-week market update: The intermediate term technical trend remains bullish, it`s hard to argue with the strong momentum that the market has displayed. Ari Wald recently pointed out that the market is experiencing a "good overbought" condition (my words, not his) that has the potential to carry the market much higher.

However, the current market environment may be setting up for a short correction. The SPX is trading above its upper weekly Bollinger Band (BB). Past episodes, when viewed in isolation, have been relative benign. The market has either continued grind upwards, or move sideways. That said, I am monitoring the weekly RSI-14 indicator when the market is above its upper BB. Past breaks below the 70 after an overbought reading have seen the market pull back. (Note that the weekly RSI reading remains above 70, and therefore no sell signal has been generated.)

I am watching the evolution in small cap leadership, which may be in the process of breaking down. Such a development could be a signal of near term market weakness.

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