Wednesday, January 31, 2018

A glass half-full, or...

Mid-week market update: I turned cautious on equities last Wednesday (see Out of words for 'extreme' and 'unprecedented'). Since then, the market rallied, and fell for two straight days on Monday and Tuesday, ending the last five days slightly negative.

Is this the start of a downside break, or just a blip in a continuing market rally?

On one hand, investors have been buying the dip, indicating continuing confidence in the market. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg pointed out that investors poured $8 billion into equity ETFs during the two day selloff.

On the other hand, this funds flow data poses a high degree of downside risk. Should the market continue to correct or consolidate, sentiment needs to wash out before a durable short-term bottom can be seen.

What's the real story?

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