Thursday, October 11, 2018

Things you don't see at market bottoms: Booming confidence edition

The last time I published a post in a series of "things you don't see at market bottoms" based on US based investor enthusiasm was in June. Sufficient signs have emerged again for another edition.

As a reminder, it is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish sentiment should be viewed as a condition indicator, and not a market timing tool.

Past editions of this series include:
I reiterate my belief that excessively bullish sentiment may not signal the top of the equity market, but investors should be aware of the risks of an environment in which sentiment has become increasingly frothy.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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