What would Bob Farrell say?

What would the legendary market analyst Bob Farrell say about today's markets? I was reviewing the patterns of factor returns recently, and I was reminded of three of Farrell's 10 Rules of Investing (which are presented slightly out of order).

Rule 3: There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.

Rule 2: Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.

Rule 4: Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.

Applying those principles to the return patterns to growth and value over the last 20 years, we can see that growth has peaked out relative to value in 2020 (Rules 2 and 3).

Does that mean that this is the end of an era for growth stocks? Large-cap growth stocks comprise roughly 45% of the weight of the S&P 500. If they were to falter, does this mean investors are facing a major market top?

What would Bob Farrell say?

The full post can be found here.