Peak hawkishness = Risk-on?

The Economist is becoming known as a source of the contrarian magazine cover indicator. As the world holds its collective breath for the FOMC decision next week, the recent cover of the magazine begs a number of important questions for investors.

• How far beyond the inflation-fighting curve is the Fed?
• What are the likely policy implications?
• Is this a case of peak hawkish expectations for the market and what does that mean for asset prices?

The full post can be found here.

The bulls attempt a goal line stand

Mid-week market update: As the S&P 500 tests the lows for 2022, the question for investors and traders is whether support will hold. The analysis of the large-cap S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap Russell 2000 presents a mixed picture. While large and mid-caps appear to be holding support, small-caps look wobbly.

A violation of support would open up considerable downside potential and this is the equivalent of the bulls' goal-line stand. Will they be successful?

The full post can be found here.

Pairs Monitor: Correlations converging to 1?

I recently suggested a number of long/short pair trades as a way of achieving performance in an uncertain and choppy market. Inflation hedge vehicles have begun to underperform, and the subsequent performance of the pairs is revealing of the factors driving the current market environment.

The full post can be found here.

Sentiment: This time is different

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can bsoe found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Neutral*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

About that AAII sentiment...

It's confirmed. The AAII weekly sentiment data was not a blip. While bullish sentiment advanced slightly from the previous week, it remains weak and the bull-bear spread is still below -20, which is a contrarian buy signal. While bullish sentiment did crater, bearish sentiment did not spike to levels indicating panic.

While conventional sentiment analysis would conclude that these represent tactical buy signals, I beg to differ. This time is different, and here's why.

The full post can be found here.

How to time the recession stock market bottom

Recession fears have arrived on Main Street. From a statistical perspective, Google searches for "recession" have spiked.

From an anecdotal perspective, recession talk has emerged as the talk of the party.

These conditions beg three crucial questions for investors:

• Will there be a recession?
• If so, how much of the slowdown is in the market?
• When will the recessionary stock market bottom?

The full post can be found here.

Cyclicals catch a bid, but...

Mid-week market update: Cyclical industries have caught a bid in the last week. That's not a big surprise as they have been badly clobbered relative to the market. Transportation stocks exhibited impressive strength as they regained relative support turned resistance level. However, the relative performance of all of the other industries was either below relative support or in a relative downtrend (retailers). The cyclically sensitive copper/gold ratio also rebounded, but in the context of a broad sideways pattern (bottom panel).

Don't be fooled. Fade the rally.

The full post can be found here.

The canaries in a bifurcated coalmine

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can bsoe found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Bearish*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

A bifurcated market

As the S&P 500 struggles to hold its 50 dma, an unusual condition is occurring in the US equity market. The intermediate-term technical outlook is decidedly bearish, but the survey sentiment has reached a crowded short condition, which is contrarian bullish. This week, I offer some canaries in the coalmine as a way to resolve the wildly differing views of the market.

The full post can be found here.

US equity investors are playing with fire

In bull markets, valuation generally doesn`t matter very much unless it reaches a nosebleed extreme, such as the NASDAQ Bubble. In bear markets, valuation defines the downside risk in equity prices.

As the Powell Fed has signaled it is dead set on a hawkish policy that does not preclude inducing a recession, valuation will matter soon. The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 2.8% and the S&P 500 forward P/E is 19.0. The last time the 10-year reached these levels was 2028 when the forward P/E traded mostly in a range of 15-16 but bottomed at a panic low of 13.6. The previous episode of a similar 10-year yield was in H2 2013 when the forward P/E was in the range of 13.5-15. 

All else being equal, this implies downside risk of -15% to -30% for the S&P 500. That's why US equity investors are playing with fire.

The full post can be found here.

Another Omen warning

Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the market recently flashed a Hindenburg Omen last week. The criteria for the Omen was succinctly explained by David Keller as:

• The market is in an established uptrend;
• A sharp expansion in both new highs and new lows, indicating indecision; and
• A momentum break.

To be sure, Hindenburg Omens aren't bearish until we see a cluster of Omen signals within a short period. Since last week's Omen was a singular event, we should only treat it as a warning and not an actionable signal.

The full post can be found here.

Secrets of stable returns in a chaotic bear market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can bsoe found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Neutral*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

A bear market

The signs are becoming clear. This is an equity bear market. Global central banks are engaged in a coordinated round of tightening. Fed Governor Lael Brainard put on the table the prospect of quantitative tightening, or a reduction of the Fed balance sheet, in a speech last week. This was confirmed by the release of the March FOMC minutes which revealed the Fed is targeting $95 billion in balance sheet reduction per month. Cue the fears about the effects of falling liquidity on stock prices.

In addition, the hopes that the bulls had for a momentum-driven rally fizzled in late March. The S&P 500, S&P 400, and S&P 600 all stalled at resistance and have all since pulled back.

Here are some ways that traders and investors can find stable and risk-controlled returns in a chaotic bear market.

The full post can be found here.

The 9 reasons why you should be bearish

Take a look at this mystery chart. Is that a bullish or bearish pattern? This chart is just the start of my nine reasons to be bearish on risk assets. My analysis is mainly based on real-time pricing signals from the market and relies less on fundamental or macro analysis. 

This is a time for investors to be cautious and think more about risk than return. That said, I offer one silver lining in all the dark clouds. There is one (sort of) reason to be bullish.

The full post can be found here.

Momentum, Schmometum!

Mid-week market update: There had been some recent buzz around the positive effects of price momentum on stock prices (see The breadth thrust controversy). In particular, Ed Clissold at NDR highlighted several breadth thrust buy signals, which are based on the positive effects of price momentum. Since then, the equity rally has fizzled and the major market indices across all market cap bands are struggling just below key resistance levels. More importantly, today's weakness left the S&P 500 just below its 200 dma.

Momentum, Schmomentum!

The full post can be found here.

How commodity tail wags the stock market dog

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can bsoe found here.

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish*
• Trading model: Neutral*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.

How strong is the commodity bull?

How far can the inflation trade run? A long-term chart of the conventional inflation hedge gold shows a bullish cup and saucer pattern with strong upside potential.

By contrast, the CRB Index approaching resistance appears overbought and extended.

Here's why this matters. An analysis by KKR concluded that the US economy is in a late cycle expansion, which is a period of decelerating equity returns. As the Fed raises rates to choke off inflation pressures, the inflation-sensitive commodity bull will fade and take the stock market down with it as economic growth decelerates.

In effect, we have a case of the commodity tail wagging the stock market dog.

The full post can be found here.

What matters more, the war or the Fed?

An unusual divergence has appeared between the VIX Index and MOVE, which measures the implied volatility of the bond market. While MOVE has spiked, VIX has fallen. 

The difference in the two indicators can be explained by two forces that affect markets today, namely geopolitical risk and macro risk as defined by the Fed cycle. The decline in the VIX and equity rally reflects a compression in geopolitical risk premium in light of constructive Russia-Ukraine discussions, while the elevated nature of the MOVE Index reflects the market's concerns about the Fed's tightening cycle.

I pointed out a month ago that Wars are equity bullish, but there's a catch. History shows that stock markets have recovered from sudden geopolitical shocks, with the exception that the war or insurrection results in a permanent loss of capital. It is therefore no surprise that stock prices advanced as the Russia-Ukraine risk premium faded. 

Here is a framework to consider. In the short-term, geopolitical risk will continue to dominate market volatility. Longer-term, it is the Fed cycle that matters to stock prices.

The full post can be found here.