The global manufacturing PMI survey's Output Index, which acts as a reliable advance indicator of actual worldwide output trends several months ahead of comparable official data (see chart 2), signaled stalled production in July. The stagnation signals a faltering of the global production rebound seen in June from two months of contraction in April and May.
The conventional view suggests a synchronized global recession. The more nuanced view is the world is undergoing a rolling recession, which offers more opportunities for investors.
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