What the Fed and FedEx are telling the markets

Both the Fed and FedEx had messages of recession for the markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed would raise rates until there was clear and convincing signs that inflation was headed toward its 2% target, and its projections amounted to a recession that begins either late this year or early next year. FedEx warned about a slowdown in global shipping volumes and recessionary conditions.

As we approach Q3 earnings season, an interesting divergence is appearing in the derivative markets. While the SKEW, which measures the price of option tail-risk, is low for the S&P 500, the SKEW for individual stocks has been elevated. This reflects rising anxiety about possible blow-ups in individual stocks as earnings season approaches.

Still, a review of the risks shows that not all is at it seems below the surface.

The full post can be found here.