Europe, alone?

Perhaps it is fitting that this report is being published just before November 11, Remembrance Day, the day commemorating the end of World War I. It was on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month the guns fell silent. 

Lest we forget the sacrifices of many and the terrible carnage of both World Wars.
 

As a reminder, it was the American-led geopolitical architecture in the wake of World War II, backed by an American nuclear umbrella, which contained the Soviet Union and ensured no major wars erupted after 1945. Now Trump’s America First isolationist policies are dismantling U.S. security guarantees and the possible removal of the nuclear umbrella. How U.S. allies react from the viewpoint of foreign and economic policy will be of enormous consequence for the world for the next generation.
 

A major issue in the current geopolitical environment is the Russo-Ukraine War. As Trump has shown a high degree of antipathy to NATO, Europe is becoming increasingly alone. How the EU reacts to U.S. isolationism and Ukraine will be of utmost importance to the outlook for Europe.

Here are the bull and bear cases.

 

The full post can be found here.