A tale of two markets

Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?).

1. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday through the trend line. The Russell 2000 never came close to a breakout.
2. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to break out of their sideways range. Not yet.
3. Small caps should outperform, indicating broadening breadth and better participation in an advance. The bad news is the small cap Russell 2000 is lagging. The good news is the equal-weighted S&P 500 is holding up well on a relative basis, and small caps outperformed yesterday during the market decline.
   

Tuesday's equity pullback was attributable to the rise of the bond market vigilantes, who pushed bond yields up and rattled overall risk appetite. On the other hand, the stock market's own technical internals are supportive of an advance.

 

In other words, it's a tale of two markets.

 

The full post can be found here.