Poised for a Volatilty Spike

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

   

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 31-Jul-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

 

Volatility Suppression and Expansion

The accompanying chart shows the hourly swings of the S&P 500 as an illustration of realized market volatility. The grey bars represent instances of large swings of 2.5% or more, which are consistent with market panics and likely bottoms. Realized volatility calmed since the “Liberation Day” sell-off, but began to expand slightly recently.

This is a case of price stability can create instability. Excessive positioning in response to a lower volatility sets up periods of volatility bursts. This is one of those times.

Needless to say, higher implied volatility generally translates into air pockets for stock prices. Here’s why.

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.