My former colleague Fred Meissner revealed a disturbing contrarian warning in a recent weekly commentary: “The most concerning story: recently I was on a panel for the CFA Society of San Francisco. All three analysts had the same outlook, which is my base case – a yearend rally followed by problems in the first part of 2026.”
It seems that everyone is looking for a rally into year-end, followed by weakness in the new year. Here is where I differ from that consensus. I believe the stock market should rally into year-end, followed by continued bullish tailwinds, at least for the first half of the year.
My long-term market timing model remains on a buy signal. As a reminder, this model flashes a buy signal whenever the monthly MACD of the NYSE Composite (bottom panel) turns positive and sells whenever the 14-month RSI flashes a negative divergence.
The bull is alive, and it’s helped by three major tailwinds going into 2026, namely a stimulative monetary policy, a stimulative fiscal policy, and strong price and fundamental momentum.
The bull is alive, and it’s helped by three major tailwinds going into 2026, namely a stimulative monetary policy, a stimulative fiscal policy, and strong price and fundamental momentum.
The full post can be found here.
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