I know that I have been negative on many Trump policies in these pages, but to everything there is a season. For U.S. equity investors, early 2026 is a time to reap the benefits of Trump’s 2025 policies. Last year was tumultuous for policy, but policy uncertainty is fading, and the stimulative and pro-cyclical elements of the OBBB Act are becoming evident in early 2026. In addition, the Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic releases are beating or missing consensus expectations, has been steadily positive since mid-2025.
This macro backdrop forms the basis of a bullish environment for growth expectations and bullish tailwinds for risk assets in early 2026.
This macro backdrop forms the basis of a bullish environment for growth expectations and bullish tailwinds for risk assets in early 2026.
The full post can be found here.
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