Preface: Explaining our market timing models
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
Bullish, But…
My Trend Asset Allocation Model is bullish, so I am intermediate-term bullish. My Trend Model applies trend-following techniques to global stocks and commodity prices. The accompanying chart shows that the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI), ACWI ex- U.S., and commodity prices (all in USD) are in solid uptrends.
However, a number of cracks are appearing under the surface that are making me into a cowardly bull.
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). As this site is shutting down on March 31, 2026, my inner trader is retiring so that there will be no tradings outstanding at the end of the quarter. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 to 16-Jan-2026 is shown below, and the chart will no longer be updated.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “bearish” on 27-Jun-2025)*
My Trend Asset Allocation Model is bullish, so I am intermediate-term bullish. My Trend Model applies trend-following techniques to global stocks and commodity prices. The accompanying chart shows that the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI), ACWI ex- U.S., and commodity prices (all in USD) are in solid uptrends.
However, a number of cracks are appearing under the surface that are making me into a cowardly bull.
The full post can be found here.
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