Thursday, June 20, 2013

Watch these lines in the sand!

The fact that the Fed telegraphed its decision to begin tapering QE later this year, assuming that the current trajectory of economic data holds, was not an enormous surprise to me. However, the combination of the Fed decision, bad China data overnight and a liquidity squeeze in China have served to exacerbate the global market selloffs as I write these words.

Is this just a minor correction or the start of something worse? These are some technical lines in the sand that I am watching. First of all, the decline in the SPX has been contained at its 50-day moving average in the recent past. Can support at the 50 dma, which is at about 1618 hold?


As well, bond yields have been spiking in the wake of the FOMC decision. Past surges in 10-year Treasury yields have been contained at about the 2.4% level. Can 2.4% hold?



Bearish trigger in Europe
I have also been relatively constructive on European equities and believe it to be a value play. Despite the negative tone on the markets, eurozone PMIs have surprised on the upside (via Business Insider):



I wrote that past declines in European equities have been contained at its 200 day moving average (see The bear case for equities). Can the 200 dma hold?




Bearish trigger in emerging markets
In China, the combination of poor June flash PMI and a liquidity crunch have served to throw the markets into a tizzy. Zero Hedge reports that overnight repo rates spiked to 25%, which is evocative of the market seizures seen during the Lehman Crisis.


At this point, we don't know if this credit crunch is deliberate or if the Chinese authorities have lost control of the interbank market (see FT Alphaville discussion). Michael McDonough sounded the alarm about the possible negative effects of this credit crunch on Chinese growth:



Should the Chinese credit crunch get out of control and start to spill over into the global markets, we should see the first signs of it in emerging market bonds. I wrote to watch the relative performance ratio of the emerging market bond ETF (EMB) against US high yield (HYG), which is testing a key relative technical support level (see An EM yellow flag):



I had written in the past to watch the price of the Chinese banks listed in HK as warning signs (see The canaries in the Chinese coalmine). That indicator may have lost some of its power as Reuters reported on Monday that the Chinese authorities have stepped in to increase their stake the state banks in order to "boost confidence":
China's government has stepped up efforts to lift confidence in the country's flagging stock markets by buying more shares in the four biggest commercial banks, stock exchange statements showed on Monday.

Central Huijin Investment Co, which holds Beijing's investments in state-owned financial firms, spent about 363 million yuan ($59.2 million) buying bank shares on June 13, Reuters calculations based on stock exchange filings showed.

This is the third time Huijin has been known to be buying shares in the secondary market since June 13, when China's stock market skidded to six-month lows after data showed the world's second-biggest economy was cooling faster than expected.

Watch the tripwires!
In summary, I wrote on Monday that my Trend Model had moved to "neutral" from "risk-on" (see Is the correction over?). For now, I am in watch and wait mode and monitoring these bearish tripwires before I go into full-flown "risk-off" mode:
  • Can the 50 dma hold for the SPX?
  • Can the 10-year Treasury yield breach the 2.4% level?
  • Can decline in the STOXX 600 be arrested at the 200 dma?
  • Will emerging market bonds melt down?




Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. ("Qwest"). This article is prepared by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity. As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Qwest.

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or Mr. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

1 comment:

Davidson said...

well- did it break out or not? What do you think?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95922291521