Monday, October 14, 2013

Ahead of the curve?

Lol! Is CNN channeling me? One day after I wrote a post entitled The sun will come out tomorrow, where I discussed the stock market outlook irrespective of the political standoff in Washington, I found this on the CNN website:

Yesterday, I also wrote a second post called The GOP schism, where I outlined the growing divide between the Establishment wing and Tea Party wing of the GOP. CNN also featured a column by well-known conservative David Frum, where he lamented the ideological split in the Republican Party:
This is why you now hear so much "third party" talk coming from tea party Republicans rather than (as you might expect) the party's subordinated pragmatists. The sensible center is much more likely to exert itself inside existing parties, as Dwight Eisenhower did for Republicans in the 1950s and as Bill Clinton did for the Democrats in the 1990s.

Pragmatists want to change the GOP so that it can win elections and govern effectively. Tea party Republicans prefer to express their principles regardless of consequences, which is why the Pew survey in September found that 71% of them favored a government shutdown even though nearly 40% of them expected that shutdown to have a "major" impact on the economy.

Third-party threats frighten Republican leaders. They remember that Ross Perot's independent challenge badly hurt George H.W. Bush's re-election campaign in 1992.
Frum wishes that the Tea Party faction would just go away. He then bid them good riddance [emphasis added]:
It's worth repeating over and over again. Add Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana, Sharron Angle in Nevada and Ken Buck in Colorado, Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska -- and you have half a dozen Senate races lost to the GOP by extremist nominations.

Maybe the right answer to the threat, "Shut down the government or we quit" is: "So sad you feel that way. Don't let the door hit you on the way out."
This is getting both eerie and scary. Either I am ahead of the curve, or my views are becoming mainstream and consensus, which would be worrisome to me as a contrarian investor.





Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. (“Qwest”). The opinions and any recommendations expressed in the blog are those of the author and do not reflect the opinions and recommendations of Qwest. Qwest reviews Mr. Hui’s blog to ensure it is connected with Mr. Hui’s obligation to deal fairly, honestly and in good faith with the blog’s readers.”

None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Nothing in this blog constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities or other instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Qwest or I may hold or control long or short positions in the securities or instruments mentioned.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry to break it to you, but you are hopelessly mainstream. Your blog needs pizazz- try adding some conspiracy theories!

Bret Wilson said...

Frum may be a Republican, but he is not conservative.