- How to play the Brexit referendum (published February 29, 2016): Setting up for a trade?
- A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks (published January 20, 2016): Staying long energy
- Long SPX: A shallow pullback (published March 23, 2016): US equities climbing a Wall of Worry
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As a reminder, here is a sample of some of past posts:
- Why I am bearish (and what would change my mind) May 2015
- Relax, have a glass of wine August 2015
- Why this is not the start of a bear market September 2015
- The reason why the bulls should be cautious about a January hangover December 2015
- Why this is a correction and not a bear market January 2016
1 comment:
An essential issue you underestimate imho is that the Brexit discussion has largely become emotional iso rational. And in an emotional discussion unsympathetic parties (like the EU is largely seen in the UK) always have a considerable disadvantage. Anyway polls are showing results 10-15 sigma apart so are largely useless as we donot know which ones are more or less correct. Probably best to go for 50/50 now. My instict as yours says that likely people will vote for the devil they know, however the Scottish referendum where the case for remain could rationally be explained (from an economic perspective) almost had 50% Outs, or just needed a few percents more for out to break up the country.
The financial markets have basically only focussed on the small UK leaving the big EU. That made the market reactions we have seen totally logical. However as we have seen with the Euro a possible break up could also be seen as the beginning of the end of the EU. With as such much larger consequences for especially EZ countries than in case of a Brexit for the UK. Imho marketsentiment will be extremely important. In other words another Euro (sub-)crisis at that time might give 180 degree different outcomes.
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