Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Don't relax yet, the week isn't over

Mid-week market update: Boy, was I wrong. Two weeks ago, I wrote Why the SP 500 won't get to 2400 (in this rally). Despite today's market strength, stock prices may be restrained by a case of round number-itis as the Dow crosses the 21,000 mark and the SPX tests the 2,400 level.

In addition, the market's reaction to President Trump's speech to Congress was at odds to the reaction from Street strategists. While the market went full risk-on in the wake of the Trump speech, this Bloomberg summary of strategist comments made it clear that the speech was long on themes and short on details. Perhaps stocks are rallying because Trump did not go off script and sounded statesmanlike and presidential. How long the market remains patient with his lack of the specifics on tax reform, which is Wall Street's major focus, remains an open question.

In the meantime, the SPX has broken above its trend line and appears to be staging an upside blow-off. When animal spirits start to stampede like this, you never know when the rally will end.

Does this mean it's time to jump back on the bullish bandwagon? Not so fast. The week isn't over and there are a couple of other major developments (other than the Trump speech) that warrant consideration.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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