Mid-week market update: This week has been full of major market moving events. The BOJ raised rates and announced it would half its bond buying program. The announcement spiked the JPY and set off a scramble to unwind the carry trade. The Fed kept rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly at a September rate cut. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, which raised the risk of a regional war and rising oil prices. We will also get the BOE decision tomorrow (Thursday). On top of that, investors will see several major megacap technology stocks report this week, starting with Microsoft, which disappointed, followed by META after the close Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple Thursday.
In the face of multiple major news events and sources of volatility, I am sticking to technical analysis to interpret the markets. Sometimes it's more useful to analyze the market reaction than to try and analyze the event itself. This is one of those times.
Let's start with the good news. The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, though it is testing the bottom of a rising channel that began in October 2023.
The full post can be found here.
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