A ZBT buy signal update

Mid-week market update: Today's market action has a constructive quality to it. The S&P 500 managed to stage an upside breakout through 5500 resistance and fill the price gap just above that level. The latest development saw the index pulled back to succesfully test the 5500 resistance turned support 

 

 

 

It's normal to see the market consolidate its gains after a ZBT. Here's an update.

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.     

4 reasons to be cautious about the ZBT buy signal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Apr-2025)*
• Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 14-Apr-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A ZBT Buy Signal

I have recently seen a number of buy signals triggered with strong historical long-term returns. The latest is the Zweig Breadth Thrust. The technique was first detailed in Marty Zweig’s book, Winning on Wall Street, first published in 1986. It’s a rare signal that was triggered only eight times since the book’s publication. 

The signal required the market to exhibit strong price momentum. The Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator needed to recover from an oversold to overbought condition within 10 trading days. The signal has had a 100% positivity rate on a 6- and 12-month horizon. The market fizzled over short-term horizons on three instances when the Fed was raising rates, which is not the backdrop today. That said, Tom McClellan published a study of ZBT signals going back to the 1920s and found that the results ended to be hit-and-miss.

The ZBT buy signal triggered late last week. Notwithstanding the stellar historical record of this indicator, I am struggling with the long-term equity bull case and I have four reasons to be cautious.

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.     

An American Emerging Market crisis?

Something unusual happened recently. During risk-off episodes, U.S. economic pain has been cushioned by falling bond yields and an appreciating USD, which translates into lower interest rates and more consumer spending power.
 

The risk-off episode that began in early April, which was just after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, saw the opposite. The price of the 10-year Treasury note fell more when denominated in all major currencies except the Chinese yuan. Foreigners were fleeing USD assets and Treasury paper, meaning the pain was amplified.

Had the panic not been stemmed, it was starting to look like a classic emerging market crisis.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.    

Sounding the all-clear, but for how long?

Mid-week market update: It's time to sound the all-clear signal, as least in the short run. Both the S&P 500 and the equal-weighted S&P 500 have decisively staged upside breakouts through the falling trend line. The bulls have regained control of the tape.

 

 

The next resistance test is the 50% retracement level at about 5500. How far can the relief rally run?

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.   

60/40 in an era of American Unexceptionalism

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Bearish (Last changed from “neutral” on 11-Apr-2025)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Threats to the 60/40 Portfolio

The conventional asset mix of 60% equities and 40% bond is designed to maximize return and minimize volatility risk under a reasonable set of risk tolerance assumptions. The equity portion of the portfolio is meant to provide growth, while the bond portion is designed to provide portfolio stability as bond prices have low to negative correlation to stock prices. In addition, bonds have the additional benefit of a steady income and high assurance of capital preservation, or getting your money back.
 

What happens if the “getting your money back” assumption is shaken?
 

Investors saw that recently when Treasury yields rose (and Treasury prices fell) and the USD fell at the same time. The episode was interpreted as a possible end to the era of American Exceptionalism and the USD as a safe-haven asset. While we saw a similar episode in early 2018, it nevertheless underscores concerns about the 60/40 portfolio as stock bond correlations were rising in both instances. Rising correlation leads to greater portfolio volatility and a reduction in the diversification effects of the two asset classes, which can be worrisome during the current climate of elevated market stress.

What can investors do under such circumstances?
 

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.  

Known unknowns, and unknown unknowns

Ahead of the Second Gulf War, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously referred to “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” when responding to a question about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
 

Fast forward to 2025, investors have to contend with a series of known unknowns and unknown unknowns as they consider their investment policy in an environment where global economic uncertainty has skyrocketed to an all-time high.
 

Here are some known unknowns to consider:

• What are the objectives of Trump’s negotiations and how far is he willing to go?
• When will the chaos subside enough that companies can plan and respond to the changes in tariff regimes?
• Will the U.S. economy fall into recession?

Here are some unknown unknowns to consider:

• Have the USD and Treasury securities permanently lost their position as safe havens?
• How much damage has been done to the post-World War II security and financial architecture?

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.  

Torturing the data until it talks

Mid-week market update: Market internals are showing signs of a wash-out. Readings are normalizing after an extreme oversold condition against a backdrop of extreme fear. Stock prices should advance from here.

 

On the other hand, the S&P 500 just experienced a "death cross", where the 50 dma falls below the 200 dma. Notwithstanding today's negative surprises from NVIDIA and Fed Chair Powell, the inability of the index to overcome resistance at the 5500 level, which is the site of the 50% retracement and just below a price gap, is disconcerting for the bulls.

 

 

What happens next? Let's review some historical studies, otherwise known as "torturing the data until it talks".

 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates. 

Estimating downside risk

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 15-Nov-2024)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

Out of Words to Describe “Oversold”

This is an oversold market, but I’ve run out of words to describe “oversold”.

The percentage of S&P 500 above the 200 dma fell below 20% last week, and the percentage above their 50 dma fell below 10% at the same time. These are rare events that have signaled severely oversold markets.
 

Going back to 2002, which is when these data series were available, the market made a final low in about half of these episodes, and re-tested the previous low, sometimes unsuccessfully, in the other half.

What’s the prognosis? What’s the market’s downside risk?
 

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

A game theory analysis of the trade war

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Anna Wong published a chart outlining the impact of Trump’s tariff pivot. Trump raised tariffs on China and cut the “reciprocal tariff rate” to 10% for all others, except USMCA members Canada and Mexico, for 90 days. The resulting weighted tariff rate is not substantially different from the “Liberation Day” rates and it remains roughly comparable to the tariff rates of the Smoot-Hawley era. More worrisome is the higher tariff rate on consumer goods under the new regime, which spells stagflation, or higher prices combined with lower growth.

 

 
How will the trade war end? Let’s game theory this out.
 

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates. 

Trump's Liz Truss moment?

Mid-week market update: Is this Donald Trump's Liz Truss Moment? In the fall of 2022, UK prime minister passed a series of unfunded tax cuts. The bond market rebelled and sold off hard, especially in the long end of the yield curve. The massive sell-off forced a number of "hedged" pension funds into technical insolvency, which eventually led to the political downfall of the prime minister.

 

Here is where we stand today. The 10-year Treasury yield and other long yields have spiked. The MOVE Index, which is the VIX of the bond market, is up sharply. The yield curve is has marginally recovered from inversion, but nevertheless indicates tight monetary conditions. The trade war factor, which measures the performance of stocks with domestic revenues relative to the S&P 500, has surged.

 

Even as investors fret about how tariffs are affecting the stock market, the real action is in the bond market.

 

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

 

Force Majeure

Just a quick update in a day with a fast moving market. Trump's tariffs are eliciting a reaction among key supporters and the real economy. Pittsburgh based Howmet Aerospace, a key supplier to Airbus and Boeing, declared force majeure on its contracts owing to the new tariff regime. Force majeure is a legal practice allows enabling contracted parties to avoid obligations due to unavoidable or unpredictable external circumstances.

 

This measure is likely just the tip of the iceberg. We will undoubtedly see other signs of economic slowdown in the coming days.

The full post can be found here.

 

 Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

A big bear, or just a plain vanilla correction?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

  

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

 

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 15-Nov-2024)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

The Big One?

In light of the market’s negative surprise from Trump’s tariff announcement, the key question for investors is whether the latest pullback is just a plain vanilla correction or the Big One, which signals the start of a recession-induced bear market. As the accompanying chart shows, the S&P 500 experienced average intra-year drawdowns of -14.1%, compared to the current pullback of -17.4% so far.

 
How worried should you be? 

The full post can be found here.

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

 

Crafting investment policy in an America First world

What should investors make of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which was characterized as “worst than the worst-case scenario”? Instant analysis from several sources shows that the weighted average tariff rate is now higher than the rates from the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. Trump claims that his tariffs will raise $6 trillion over the next decade, which amounts to the largest tax hike in U.S. history.

I pointed out last week that Trump’s abrupt shift in U.S. policy is making the world undergo a dramatic regime shift in investment environment (see Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power). The key big picture question is how investors should formulate investment policy under these new circumstances.

The full post can be found here.

 

 

Special announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publication on March 31, 2026. See this announcement for more details and updates.

Here's what's more important than the tariff announcement

Mid-week market update: The market approached Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement all beared up. Trading desk surveys indicate that most retail and institutional market participants had reduced risk coming into the announcement, with outright bears outnumbering the buy-the-dip crowd by 7%.

 

 

While the ultimate outcome of the Trump tariffs will move markets, there's something even more important than the announcement.

The full post can be found here.

It's time to hang them up (or the long goodbye)

Special Announcement: Humble Student of the Markets will cease publishing a year from now, on March 31, 2026. (This is being published on March 31, 2025 and it is not an April Fools joke).

 

Here's some history. I began writing Humble Student of the Markets in 2007. I had left Merrill Lynch to begin my semi-retirement after starting an investment career in 1985, and personally involved in the stock market since 1980. At the time, I made a decision to slow down and spend more time with my family. In the intervening years, I saw my daughter grow up from a child to a young woman. I was fortunate that life offers such a trade-offs, and I don't regret a minute of that decision. 

 

But I was restless and I still had a passion for the markets. So I started blogging in 2007, and writing regularly was a way of expressing my investment process on paper. It was a labour of love. The blog gained a following and eventually turned into a pay-site in 2015. After 17 years of writing, the labour of love has turned into a grind of producing content three times a week. The game is changing and I am running out of things to say. 

 

I have seen two major shifts of investing paradigm during my investing career. In the early 2000s, I changed my focus from a bottom-up to a top-down quantitative equity investor. By that time, the barriers to entry to bottom-up quant investing had dropped dramatically. When once quant managers had to devote resources to integrate and manage their own databases, services like FactSet offered an all-in-one integrated database. Quant managers were crowding into the same trade. Virtually everyone were building bottom-up sector or industry neutral stock picking models. While your industry mapping may be different from mine, and our estimate revision models may differ, we were all crowding into the same trade. When it cost millions a year of data support to become an equity quant, you could build a quant department for under 500K. I decided that it was time to shift to something uncomfortable for equity quantitative investing. Instead of trying to find alpha in sector/industry neutral modeling, it was time to add value by rotating among top-down factors such as market timing, and sector and factor rotation.

Today, the game is changing once more. A recent Bloomberg article entitled "How Analyst Job Cuts on Wall Street Are Shaping Equity Research" tells the story of how investment banks are forcing analysts to do more with less. Consequently, company coverage is shrinking and some analysts have quit to become content creators on platforms like Substack. This will have the effect of raising stock picking alpha potential among smaller neglected names, and raising small cap volatility, both on an index and individual stock level. The degree of value-added in top-down analysis like what I offer is gradually losing to bottom-up approaches. 

From a top-down perspective, see my recent post, "Uncharted investor waters: From soft to hard power". This is truly a time when "past performance is no guarantee of future returns". We are on the cusp of a tectonic shift in asset return expectations with unknown consequences.

 

As old athletes might say, "It's time to hang them up."

Here is what this means for the site going forward.

For existing subscribers

If you are an existing monthly subscriber, nothing will change until March 31, 2026. If you are an annual subscriber, your subscription will be pro-rated on a monthly basis to March 31, 2026. 

For new subscribers

Only monthly subscriptions will be available. Annual subscriptions will cease.

 

For free notifications

I have a long standing policy of opening content that's four weeks old to the public. That policy will not change. You could sign up for free email notifications of free content.

 

Going forward, free email notifications will cease operation immediately, but the embargo on content will continue to lift after four weeks.

 

Legacy plans

I have secured an agreement with Fred Meissner, of The Fred Report, to continue publishing a monthly commentary on my Trend Asset Allocation Model at his site. Fred is an experienced ex-Merrill Lynch colleague and seasoned technical analyst who focuses on global markets with a particular emphasis on the U.S.. Existing subscribers will receive a free trial to Fred's service for three months starting January 1, 2026. 

 

You can also sign up for a subscription today at Fred Meissner's site and receive a discounted rate with the code CamTrial. His basic subscription is written service listed at $40/month or $400/year. His premium subscription includes the written service and a weekly conference call where subscribers can ask specific questions is $100/month or $1000/year.

 

The website, its archived content, and my email address will remain in existence for at least a year. 

 

For subscribers who are focused on macro style market commentary, here are some other people whose analysis that I have a lot of respect for that you may consider following. (I receive no compensation for these recommendations).

 

Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives Substack:  Veteran Wall Street strategist with unique out-of-the box insights.

Callum Thomas, Topdown Charts: A big picture macro thinker whose investment process aligns with mine.

Jurrien Timmer, director of macro at Fidelity: You can follow him on X/Twitter here. He also has a weekly newsletter that you can sign up for on LinkedIn.

Thank you for your past support

Thank you to all. It's been a terrific journey together. This will be a long goodbye, but I think a lot about Bill Watterson, the cartoonist who published Calvin & Hobbs, who quit after he ran out of things to say. This was his final comic strip on December 31, 2015.

The message from gold's generational breakout

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 15-Nov-2024)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Generational Breakout

In case you missed it, the price of gold staged a generational upside breakout relative to both the S&P 500 and the 60/40 balanced fund, as measured by Vanguard’s VBINX (bottom two panels). On an absolute perspective, gold already broke out of a cup and handle pattern at 2100, indicating significant upsid0e potential. From a cross-asset perspective, past breakouts have coincided with periods of severe financial stress.

 The full post can be found here.

Uncharted investor waters: From soft to hard power

Markets were rattled by policy under Trump 1.0 by his unpredictable and chaotic nature. Trump 2.0 promises to be more of the same. Other than the transactional nature of Trump’s deal making, what’s his ultimate end game?

It’s to undo the effects of globalization. The political backdrop can be explained by Branko Milanovic’s famous “elephant chart”. The graph charts percentile of global income distribution, or how rich you are on a global scale, on the x-axis, and the changes in real income between 1998 and 2008 on the y-axis. The winners of globalization were the emerging market countries whose population were lifted out of poverty and the elite of the industrialization countries, who engineered globalization. The losers were population in subsistence economies and the middle class of the industrialized countries, which has sparked populist backlashes such as the Make America Great Again movement, the AfD in Germany, the National Front in France, and so on.

Trump rose to power by tapping on the deep political discontent of globalization of MAGA Americans. Here’s what this means for investors.

The full post can be found here.

A change in market tone

Mid-week market update: The stock market's relief rally arrived this week when the WSJ reported over the weekend that Trump's "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs due to be announced on April 2 will be narrowly focused. The S&P 500 rallied to regain its 200 dma. The index pulled back below the 200 dma when Bloomberg reported that "Trump Prepares Auto Tariff Announcement as Soon as Wednesday", though the upside price gap from Monday remains unfilled.

 

 

Despite today's downside reversal, recent trends are emerging that indicate a change in the tone of price action.

 

The full post can be found here.

How to trade the momentum reversal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models 

We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend-following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.

 

 

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.

  

The latest signals of each model are as follows:

• Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
• Trend Model signal: Neutral (Last changed from “bullish” on 15-Nov-2024)*
• Trading model: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Feb-2025)*

* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent and on BlueSky at @humblestudent.bsky.social. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.

A Risk-off Reversal

The most recent BoA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed a sudden reversal in risk appetite. Global institutional investors stampeded out of risky assets and rotated from U.S. equities into Europe and China. Most of the selling was concentrated in the U.S. Magnificent Seven, which had been the market leaders. It was a stunning display of a reversal in price momentum.

The full post can be found here.

Making sense of market uncertainty

The latest FOMC statement and subsequent press conference were full of references to “uncertainty”. Most notably, the FOMC statement changed the language related to the Fed’s goals being “roughly in balance” to “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”. 

 

 
Not only is uncertainty elevated, but also the risks to inflation, GDP growth and employment have risen in 2025, which increases the odds of stagflation ahead. 

How should investors react to the increase in policy uncertainty?
 

The full post can be found here.