Thursday, July 28, 2016

Is Chinese growth stalling?

I have long had much respect for the folks at Lombard Street Research (LSR) for their unusual non-consensus calls. Back in the days of the Tech Bubble when everyone was focused on the likes of Cisco Systems, Lucent, Nokia and other technology darlings, they had said "watch China" as the next engine of growth. That turned out to be the Big Call that made me forever remember them.

It was therefore with great interest when a Bloomberg story came across my desk indicating that LSR believed that China may be in a liquidity trap. While Chinese M1 growth has been picking up sharply, LSR`s estimate of the growth the broad money M3 has been slowing, which led to the conclusion of a possible liquidity trap.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

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