Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Is the consolidation over?

Mid-week market update: After the stock market rally off the panic Brexit bottom that took SPX to new all-time highs, the market has been in a tight trading range for the last 10 trading days.

As the chart below shows, the 5-day RSI, which is a useful short-term trading indicator,flashed a sell signal several days ago as it retreated from an overbought reading into neutral territory. This "should" have pushed the index down further, especially with the slightly hawkish tone from the Fed today. The logical initial support level is the mid-Bollinger Band, or 20 day moving average (dma), which is rising quickly but current stands at 2140. The next support would the the breakout level at about 2120.

However, the slightly hawkish statement from the FOMC was not enough to push the market below the tight consolidation range. A market with a weaker tone would have fallen to at least test the initial support level, but it hasn't. The key question for traders is, "Is this consolidation or corrective period over?"

The full post is available at our new site here.

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