Sunday, July 3, 2016

Brexit panic: A gift from the market gods?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses the trading component of the Trend Model to look for changes in direction of the main Trend Model signal. A bullish Trend Model signal that gets less bullish is a trading "sell" signal. Conversely, a bearish Trend Model signal that gets less bullish is a trading "buy" signal. The history of actual out-of-sample (not backtested) signals of the trading model are shown by the arrows in the chart below. Past trading of the trading model has shown turnover rates of about 200% per month.

The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Neutral*
  • Trading model: Bearish*
The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet any changes during the week at @humblestudent. Subscribers will also receive email notices of any changes in my trading portfolio.

A gift from the market gods?
Now that Mr. Market has decided that Brexit has been "fixed", it's time for a sober second analytical look at the impact of this historic decision by the UK electorate on the US equity market.

The knee-jerk market sell-off appears to be a gift from the market gods to investors. The economic impact of the event on the American economy seems to be relatively minimal. Risk premiums have risen in response as the world is witnessing a repeat of the usual European theatre, whose last major production was staged during the Greek crisis of 2011.

The full post can be found at our new site here.

Website notice
If you found the above post to be of interest, come over to the new site and check out our track record. We have something for traders and investors alike:

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