Buy to the sound of cannons

As global markets have been jittery on the prospect of military conflict in Ukraine, Ben Carlson showed a table of the regular nature of US stock market drawdowns, which is a feature of equity risk.

I am also reminded of the quip by British banker Nathan Rothchild, "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets." As well, the trader Art Cashin also related his experience with the Cuban Missile Crisis as a young man (via Barry Ritholz):

Anyway, it was the Cuban Missile Crisis and there were rumors that Russia had launched rockets and the Dow took a dive near the bell.

I cleaned up my desk and raced to the Moosehead, as animated as only an 18 year-old can be. Jack was already there and as I burst through the door, I shouted: “Jack! Jack, there was a strong rumor that the missiles were flying and I tried to sell the market but failed.”

Jack said “Calm down kid! First buy me a drink and then sit down and listen to me.” I ordered the drink and meekly sat down.

Jack said – “Look kid, if you hear the missiles are flying, you buy them. You don’t sell them.”

“You buy them?” I said, somewhat puzzled.

“Sure you buy them!” said Jack. “Cause if you’re wrong, the trade will never clear. We’ll all be dead.”

That’s a lesson you won’t learn in the Wharton School.

Both Rothchild's thinking and Cashin's story are lessons in market psychology and the occasional asymmetric nature of asset returns. With the angst over the FOMC decision out of the way, let's consider what might happen if war were to actually break out.

The full post can be found here.